For markets, which have seemingly largely priced out that probability over recent days, the market impact would be immediate if a Leave vote starts to look likely through during the early hours of Friday morning, including:
- a precipitous drop in Sterling, with the euro also under pressure as the dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc benefit;
- a hit to global equity markets and futures;
- a flood of money into government bond markets, including Gilts and core euro area government bonds, but
- a significant underperformance of euro area peripheral bonds; and
- a hit to credit spreads, particularly of European financials and UK financials in particular.