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PMIs to point to persistent weakness

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • While Asian equities generally made modest gains, today’s Japanese flash PMIs offered a downbeat assessment of conditions at the start of Q4, a view likely to be mirrored in the euro area survey. But despite ongoing concerns about the euro area’s economic outlook, the ECB’s Governing Council meeting today – the last under Draghi’s Presidency -  seems likely to be a non-event.

 

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Election extension?

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • With the dust still settling on yesterday’s votes in the House of Commons, it was unclear whether today would bring either confirmation of the detail of the Article 50 extension to be offered by the EU, or whether Johnson would push for an early general election or another programme motion. In Japan, meanwhile, department store sales data suggested front-loading of spending before the consumption tax hike, although the detail was somewhat ambiguous.

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Another Westminster showdown

Chris Scicluna
  • Ahead of further key Brexit votes in Westminster this evening, the mood in Asian stock markets was positive although major Government bonds firmed this morning while sterling eased back a touch.

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Article 50 extension ahead

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • Gilts, USTs and euro area govvies are weaker this morning after the weekend’s vote in the House of Commons that forced Johnson to request an Article 50 extension. And following further votes in Parliament this week, we expect an extension to be granted by the EU, paving the way for an election by Christmas.

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Chinese GDP miss

Chris Scicluna
  • China’s Q3 GDP data missed expectations with a new series low, but September’s IP and retail numbers softened the blow. Meanwhile, Japan’s CPI report provided no surprises whatsoever, but next month’s will be far more difficult to predict.

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