Recent Blogs




Japan’s manufacturing PMI revised higher, but vehicle sales decline

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s manufacturing PMI revised higher; Q4 capex and January labour market data ahead tomorrow and more sentiment indicators and news on consumer spending due later in the week.
  • China’s official PMIs disappoint again with both manufacturing and services softening.
  • German and Italian flash inflation data ahead today with equivalent euro area figures on Tuesday; German lockdown review will be of note on Wednesday.
  • Government’s midweek Budget statement the main focus in the UK this week.


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Japanese IP rebounds strongly in January

Chris Scicluna
  • Japanese IP rebounds strongly in January, probably influenced by LNY-related demand.
  • Japanese retail sales decline in January but by less than expected; housing starts post disappointing rebound in January.
  • Tokyo CPI points to no upward pressure on core prices in February.
  • French inflation falls less than expected in February.

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Japan’s department store sales down almost 30%Y/Y

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s department store sales down almost 30%Y/Y in January as pandemic restrictions weigh heavily.
  • Consumer confidence in Germany improves modestly but drops slightly in France.
  • Aussie bond yields and the Aussie dollar rise sharply as Q4 capex data beats forecasts, with forecast investment also revised higher.

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German GDP a touch firmer than previously thought in Q4

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s labour cash earnings fall a revised 3.0%Y/Y in December, while BoJ underlying measures suggest no obvious lift in the inflation pulse.
  • Aussie wage growth picks up more than expected in Q4, but trend still low; construction work posts small unexpected decline in Q4.
  • RBNZ leaves OCR at 0.25%, as expected, LSAP and lending programmes also unchanged.

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UK labour market broadly stable

Chris Scicluna
  •  China’s new home price growth picks up in January, especially in the larger cities.
  • UK labour market broadly stable around the turn of the year as government Job Retention Scheme provided support; pay growth at 12-year high only partly due to composition effects.
  • Aussie merchandise exports rise 13%Y/Y in January as metal exports soar.
  • Kiwi retail volumes fall 2.7%Q/Q in Q4 – payback for a strong rebound in Q3.

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