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Euro area headline inflation set for a sizeable decline

31 March 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Tokyo inflation edged slightly lower in March amid a further moderation in energy prices; Japanese IP beat expectations in February driven by a further recovery in the autos sector
  • Euro area unemployment figures are likely to remain consistent with a tight labour market 
  • UK house prices fell for the 7th successive month in March 
  • Monthly personal spending, income and price deflators for February key focus in the US

 

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German inflation set to fall sharply in March

30 March 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • The fall in Spanish inflation was also striking, with the EU-harmonised HICP rate almost halving to 3.1%Y/Y
  • The European Commission’s business and consumer survey results will provide an update on price expectations as well as economic conditions at the end of Q1

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Attention on inflation data out of Japan and euro area

27 March 2023

Emily Nicol
  • Tokyo inflation figure for March on Friday likely to show a further modest easing in the headline CPI rate
  • Flash euro area inflation on Friday expected to report a notable drop in the headline rate due to base effects
  • UK bank lending figures midweek likely to report a further weakening trend in mortgage lending and approvals
  • US personal income and consumption figures at the end of the week expected to report only a modest increase in wages

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BoE set to raise rates by a final 25bps

23 March 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • Reuters Tankan survey signals persisting divergence in conditions for Japanese manufacturers and non-manufacturers
  • Commission’s consumer confidence index likely to report only a modest improvement in sentiment amid ongoing uncertainties
  • US weekly jobless claims figures due alongside February new home sales figures and the Kansas Fed national activity indices

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All eyes on the Fed’s monetary policy decision

22 March 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • UK inflation figures strengthened the case for a further rate hike, with headline inflation unexpectedly rising on the back of record monthly price increases in food, core goods and, most importantly, services
  • With financial markets having stabilised to some extent, the FOMC is now widely expected to raise rates by a further 25bps taking the FFR target range to 4.75-5.00%
  • Bundesbank President Nagel this morning suggested in an interview that the Governing Council must be ‘more stubborn’ in its fight against inflation

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