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Confidence slipped back at the start of the year

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • While there was some revival of sentiment in equity markets overnight, surveys suggested that Aussie households were unsurprisingly more downbeat about conditions at the start of the year, while French businesses also signalled a slight softening of sentiment.

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No surprises from the BoJ

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • The conclusion of the BoJ’s Policy Board meeting predictably saw policy unchanged. But while it revised higher its GDP growth forecast, it also nudged slightly lower its expectation for core inflation over the forecast horizon.  As such, while we think the hurdle for additional easing is high, Kuroda reiterated that the BoJ maintains an easing bias.

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Post-tax hike pullback in Japan’s consumption smaller than in 2014

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • As the BoJ’s Policy Board meeting got underway, Japan’s synthetic consumption figures reported a modest recovery in November, suggesting that the post-tax hike pullback was smaller than in 2014. Looking ahead, the BoJ and ECB meetings will see policy left unchanged, while the flash January PMIs (Friday) will be closely watched. 

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Massive upside surprise from Japanese machine orders

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • Despite a significant upside surprise to Japan’s machine orders data, these still suggested subdued private capex growth in the wake of the consumption tax hike. European new car registrations and a UK housing survey also came in ahead of expectations.

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BoJ regional report more downbeat, but not a game-changer

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • The main event today was the scheduled signing of the first phase of the US-China trade deal. The publication of the BoJ’s Regional Economic Report predictably saw several regions revise down their economic assessments, albeit this seems unlikely to be a game-changer for the Policy Board.

  

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