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BoJ consumption activity index points to sharp decline in real spending in January

Chris Scicluna
  • BoJ consumption activity index points to sharp decline in real spending in January due to intensified pandemic and associated restrictions.
  • Annual NPC begins with China announcing conservative 2021 GDP growth target of “over 6%”.
  • German factory orders data beat expectations with stronger-than-expected start to 2021 but turnover figures point to drop in industrial production.

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Japanese consumer confidence rebounds to post-pandemic high

Chris Scicluna
  • Japanese consumer confidence rebounds to post-pandemic high in February.
  • Chancellor Merkel confirms plan for very gradual reopening of German economy.
  • Australian retail spending confirmed to have grown modestly in January, while booming commodity prices sent the international trade surplus to a record high.

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UK Budget to provide near-term support

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s services PMI revised up 0.5pt to 46.3 in February, still tracking well below Q4 levels but detail signals firms see brighter future.
  • UK Budget to provide near-term support before a tightening of the fiscal stance next year.
  • Aussie GDP expands 3.1%Q/Q on Q4 as household spending and business capex recover, above RBA expectations but unlikely to cause the Bank to reassess its dovish inflation outlook.

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More signs of recovery in Japan’s labour market in January

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s MoF corporate survey reports an unexpected 0.3%Q/Q decline in firms’ capex in Q4.
  • RBA leaves policy settings unchanged, retains forward guidance of no lift in the cash rate until 2024 at the earliest.
  • German retail sales much weaker than expected with a further big drop in January.

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Japan’s manufacturing PMI revised higher, but vehicle sales decline

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s manufacturing PMI revised higher; Q4 capex and January labour market data ahead tomorrow and more sentiment indicators and news on consumer spending due later in the week.
  • China’s official PMIs disappoint again with both manufacturing and services softening.
  • German and Italian flash inflation data ahead today with equivalent euro area figures on Tuesday; German lockdown review will be of note on Wednesday.
  • Government’s midweek Budget statement the main focus in the UK this week.

 

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