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Data provide reminder of economic weakness

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Asian investors largely remained in risk-off mode as the latest Japanese, Chinese and Aussie data disappointed expectations to provide a reminder that economic weakness remains the dominant trend. A modest upside surprise to German GDP failed to improve the market mood.

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Inflationary pressures remain subdued

Emily Nicol
  • Despite an upwards shift due to last month’s consumption tax hike, Japan’s goods PPI figures suggested that underlying price pressures remain very subdued down the pipeline. A moderation in Aussie wage growth in Q3 further underscored the lack of upward inflationary in that country too. Looking ahead, the day’s highlights include CPI inflation data from the UK and US, ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress.

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Japanese orders decline and economy watchers survey disappoints

Emily Nicol
  • Ahead of the first estimate of Japan’s Q3 GDP estimate on Thursday, today’s economic data offered a more downbeat assessment of conditions heading into the final quarter of the year. Q3 GDP figures are also due from the UK (today), Germany and the euro area (Thursday). October inflation figures are also due from the US, UK and euro area, while Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress (Wednesday) will also be closely watched.

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Surge in spending in Japan as wages tick higher

Emily Nicol
  • Japanese consumption-related data showed a sizeable jump in spending in September as households brought forward purchases of big-ticket items ahead of October’s consumption tax hike. And there was a rare upside surprise to the latest Japanese wage figures at the end of Q3.

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Japanese sentiment slumps

Emily Nicol
  • While global sentiment will no doubt get a boost by today’s report that the US and China will agree to roll back some tariffs as part of its phase one trade deal, the latest Japanese Reuters Tankan offered a markedly weaker assessment of business conditions in the middle of Q4. And while the BoE is expected to keep interest rates on hold, the MPC is likely to emphasise that downside risks remain to the fore.

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