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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2023

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  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    8 December 2023 334 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs lower but the final estimates of German inflation in November confirmed a broad-based easing of price pressures.
    • Gilts also made losses despite survey evidence of a significant softening of conditions in the UK labour market.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    7 December 2023 279 KB PDF
    • Bunds made modest gains as German industrial production contracted for a fifth consecutive month, while the drop in euro area GDP in Q3 was confirmed despite a pickup in final domestic demand.
    • Gilts followed USTs lower on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    6 December 2023 302 KB PDF
    • Trade balance: nominal goods deficit widens, implying drag from net exports on GDP in Q4
    • Revised nonfarm productivity: upward adjustment to already-firm Q3 data
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    6 December 2023 281 KB PDF
    • Bunds made further gains as euro area retail sales remained subdued and German factory orders declined further than expected at the start of Q4 while a survey pointed to ongoing contraction in German construction.
    • Gilts also largely made gains as the UK construction PMIs pointed to significant weakness in house-building as well as a notable cooling of input cost pressures in the sector.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    5 December 2023 308 KB PDF
    • Bunds made sizeable gains as influential ECB hawk Schnabel pivoted to a more neutral stance, suggesting that a further rate hike was unlikely.
    • Gilts also made large gains as a survey suggested that UK retail sales remained subdued in November despite heavy discounting.
  • European Banks - Quarterly ESG Update

    European Banks - Quarterly ESG Update

    4 December 2023 552 KB PDF
    • Record year for ESG issuance in 2023 still possible despite third quarter slump
    • Primary market volumes of FIGs and SSAs underperformed due to market volatility but issuers still presented innovative structures to investors
    • After some widening in secondary market spreads throughout 3Q23, indicative fourth quarter data suggests markets have firmed as risks receded and greeniums were partially restored
    • Fixed income markets face new regulatory and disclosure requirements that will raise standards but also improve data quality and comparability of entities from an environmental perspective
    • Key talking points and take-aways from Daiwa Capital Markets Conference 2023 - ESG Panel
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    30 November 2023 379 KB PDF
    • PCE price indexes: continued moderation
    • Real consumer spending: solid in October after Q3 jump
    • Other data: upside surprise for Chicago PMI; pending home sales remained soft
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    30 November 2023 383 KB PDF
    • While the flash estimate of euro area inflation in November significantly undershot expectations with a broad-based moderation in price pressures, Bunds made losses.
    • Despite a moderation in UK business inflation expectations, Gilts also made losses as an external MPC member suggested that monetary policy was less restrictive than the BoE had previously thought.