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2025

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  • Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ branch managers' meeting report (Oct): Progress on track

    Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ branch managers' meeting report (Oct): Progress on track

    7 October 2025 398 KB PDF
    • Confirmation that progress with Japanese economy and prices appears to be on track with regard to BOJ outlook
    • While uncertainties remain concerning next year's wage hikes, likelihood of maintaining high wage hikes is increasing
    • Report suggests that prices are moving in line with BOJ projections
  • Daiwa's View - Market reaction to Takaichi’s appointment as LDP President, inflation risks

    Daiwa's View - Market reaction to Takaichi’s appointment as LDP President, inflation risks

    7 October 2025 756 KB PDF
    • Stock prices soar while JGBs, yen both fall
    • Concerns minimal as long as equities keep rising, but if equities, JGBs, and yen all turn lower, fears of “falling behind the curve” could emerge, necessitating close monitoring of market trends
    • Unlike early days of Abenomics, fiscal stimulus more likely to increase inflation amid current labor supply constraints
  • Daiwa's View - Takaichi elected LDP leader: Bond market impact

    Daiwa's View - Takaichi elected LDP leader: Bond market impact

    6 October 2025 688 KB PDF
    • Takaichi's surprise win was barely priced in by market; we think 30yr yield could rise around 10bp at start of week
    • Initial overreaction could unwind given appointment of former finance ministers to key LDP positions, political constraints facing minority government
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Considering next rate hike following press conferences by Ueda, Takaichi

    Daiwa's Economic View - Considering next rate hike following press conferences by Ueda, Takaichi

    6 October 2025 515 KB PDF
    • BOJ Governor Ueda could be most dovish board member following dovish press conference
    • Political factors could delay rate hikes; key point for government/BOJ is confidence in stable growth path even amid tariffs
    • Domestic economy/prices: Conditions warranting early rate hike
    • Expect next rate hike within this year; still see 1% as terminal rate for rate hikes
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Fiscal policy of new Takaichi administration and its impact on JGB market

    Daiwa's Economic View - Fiscal policy of new Takaichi administration and its impact on JGB market

    6 October 2025 400 KB PDF
    • Takaichi pulled off a surprise victory, becoming the new LDP President, but she will likely follow a realistic and moderate path regarding fiscal policy
    • Fiscal spending in FY25 supplementary budget estimated to be around Y16-18tn; scale of calendar-based market issuance could remain flat y/y, or see a slight increase
    • In the medium to long term, fiscal policy and JGB issuance are expected to be influenced by expansion of the ruling coalition, easing of cost-push inflation, and success or failure of growth investments
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ Governor's speech: Views unchanged from Sep MPM

    Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ Governor's speech: Views unchanged from Sep MPM

    3 October 2025 429 KB PDF
    • More constructive view of Japanese economy
    • Focusing on US uncertainty, as at Sep MPM; cautious about near-term rate hike
    • Growing sense that Japanese economy on track to achieve BOJ forecasts; changing balance of views among policy board members makes shift in communication more likely
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ’s Summary of Opinions from Sep meeting: Board member balance tilting toward hiking rates

    Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ’s Summary of Opinions from Sep meeting: Board member balance tilting toward hiking rates

    1 October 2025 547 KB PDF
    • Economic developments: Emphasis on assessing state of US economy
    • Prices: Growing concerns about upside risks
    • Next rate hike expected in Oct-Dec 2025, followed by another in Jul-Sep 2026
  • Daiwa's View - Benefits vs costs of waiting: Re-examining December rate-hike argument

    Daiwa's View - Benefits vs costs of waiting: Re-examining December rate-hike argument

    1 October 2025 367 KB PDF
    • Building momentum for Oct rate hike; want to maintain balanced perspective by deliberately examining benefits of waiting until Dec
    • While Dec argument has at least five benefits, none are decisive in this case
    • High likelihood of additional rate hike (to 0.75%) decided at Oct MPM provided upbeat Tankan, hearings; additional speech by BOJ Deputy Gov Himino announced on 30 Sep (slated for 21 Oct) likely another step toward improving BOJ communication regarding interest rate hikes