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2025

2024

  • Daiwa's View - Outlook for JGB yields

    Daiwa's View - Outlook for JGB yields

    20 May 2025 694 KB PDF
    • We have raised our 10-year yield forecast for end-FY25 to 1.65% due to progress with US-China trade talks
    • Yields are likely to be pushed up by the expected terminal rate and widening of term premium
  • Daiwa's View - Moody’s downgraded US credit rating to Aa1

    Daiwa's View - Moody’s downgraded US credit rating to Aa1

    19 May 2025 739 KB PDF
    • We need to carefully watch for possible wide-ranging impact, because, while the downgrade may tend to lead us to think about a higher term premium, the impact of a sovereign downgrade is not as simple as a corporate bond downgrade
    • Impact on short-term/intermediate JGB zone will probably be limited
    • Market valuation of Japan is currently higher than that of France, but if Japan’s valuation were to fall to the same level as France, yields could rise by about 15bp in superlong zone
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Jan-Mar 2025 GDP

    Daiwa's Economic View - Jan-Mar 2025 GDP

    16 May 2025 495 KB PDF
    • Economy shrank on worsening external demand
    • Currently see moderate recovery, but economy not particularly strong before tariffs and significant downside risk going forward
    • Virtuous cycle of “higher wages to higher prices” stalling for now due to Trump tariffs
  • Daiwa's View - The desirable rejuvenation of superlong JGB futures

    Daiwa's View - The desirable rejuvenation of superlong JGB futures

    15 May 2025 342 KB PDF
    • The bifurcation of the JGB market and reduced liquidity of superlong JGBs is still a crisis
    • However, with the BOJ in the process of gradually reducing its market presence, some bifurcation of the market is inevitable
    • The key is not for the authorities to be quick to intervene, but rather to restore the functionality of hedges by rejuvenating superlong JGB futures to improve market liquidity
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Summary of Opinions from April BoJ meeting: Entering "wait-and-see" mode

    Daiwa's Economic View - Summary of Opinions from April BoJ meeting: Entering "wait-and-see" mode

    14 May 2025 495 KB PDF
    • Stressed downside risks for economy, prices
    • Focus on possible long-term inflation impacts
    • Consensus calls for wait-and-see stance, but rate hiking policy remains in place
    • US/China tariff agreement to have limited impact on Japan’s economy
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Outlook for Japan's economy, policy rate

    Daiwa's Economic View - Outlook for Japan's economy, policy rate

    12 May 2025 552 KB PDF
    • Jan-Mar 2025 GDP expected to decline q/q, but actual circumstances likely not bad
    • Japan’s economic outlook: Expect +0.4% y/y real growth rate for FY25
    • Expect next BOJ rate hike in Jan-Mar 2026
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ Ueda's press conference: Policy response freehand amid uncertainty

    Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ Ueda's press conference: Policy response freehand amid uncertainty

    2 May 2025 431 KB PDF
    • Ueda stressed uncertainty caused by tariffs during press conference
    • With great deal of uncertainty for its scenarios, BOJ pursuing freehand for policy responses
    • Will not slow QT pace as monetary policy measure
    • Key economic and price outlook points, government’s economic measures (incl. consumption tax cuts)
  • Daiwa's View - Life insurers’ investment plans for FY25

    Daiwa's View - Life insurers’ investment plans for FY25

    30 April 2025 584 KB PDF
    • Signs of recovered appetite for investing in hedged sovereign bonds