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2025
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Daiwa's Economic View - Speech by BOJ policy board member Asahi Noguchi; hawkish/dovish perspectives on FX/inflation
28 November 2025
521 KB
PDF
Noguchi still in favor of raising interest rates soon
May be cautious on hike to 1%; back to measured, step-by-step approach to rate hikes
December MPM live
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Daiwa Memorandum - Meetings of JGB Market Special Participants/JGB Investors: Proposal for twice-yearly revisions to issuance plans
28 November 2025
370 KB
PDF
Proposal could ensure consistent absorption of JGB issuance
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Daiwa's View - Meetings of JGB Market Special Participants/JGB Investors: The latest measures are appropriate, but...
28 November 2025
356 KB
PDF
The proposals, such as increasing short- to medium-term JGB issuance and introducing semi-annual reviews, are welcomed as appropriate and proactive responses to market changes
However, if the market were to develop the habit of demanding public intervention from MOF when market intervention by BOJ has begun to decrease, that would be like putting the cart before the horse
To avoid dependence on the public sector, decisions about reductions to JGB issuance must proceed by carefully distinguishing between structural changes and temporary factors during transitional periods
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Daiwa's Economic View - Japan's economic/price outlooks and BOJ's rate hiking path
26 November 2025
600 KB
PDF
Japan’s economy expected to grow at rate exceeding its potential growth rate, driven primarily by domestic demand
Government’s economic measures have led to downward price outlook revisions; Core CPI expected to clearly fall below 2% from 2026
Maintain our view that policy interest rate will rise to +1% in Jul-Sep 2026; That said, potential barriers include inflation expectations, communication with government
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Daiwa’s Economic View - Economic measures put high prices and oppositions’ requests ahead of Takaichi’s agenda
26 November 2025
506 KB
PDF
FY25 supplementary budget for comprehensive economic measures includes Y3.8tn increase in expenditures compared to FY24, but breakdown consists mainly of measures addressing high prices
Some fiscal stimulus under Takaichi administration will have funding amounts reconsidered in initial budget for FY26
Calendar-based market issuance amount for JGB issuance plan remains unchanged for FY25 supplementary budget; initial budget for FY26 may include increased issuance for 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y JGBs, decreased issuance for 20yr JGBs
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FX Pulse - Accelerating yen depreciation
25 November 2025
512 KB
PDF
Yen depreciation has gained momentum in the absence of strong warnings by the government regarding forex rates
Expansionary fiscal policy is also fueling yen weakness, running counter to measures to address inflation
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Daiwa's Economic View - JGB issuance plan outlook for FY25 supplementary budget, FY26 initial budget
14 November 2025
499 KB
PDF
If comprehensive economic measures portion of FY25 supplementary budget amounts to Y18tn in expenditures, total JGB issuance will increase Y12-13tn; calendar-based market issuance amount may not increase, but increased issuance for 2yr/5yr JGBs and TBs possible
As for FY26 initial budget, due to tax cuts, increased interest payments, free school tuition, and reflecting higher prices in expenditures, new JGB issuance likely to reach mid-Y30tn range; no increase in calendar-based market issuance, but increased issuance of 2yr/5yr JGBs and TBs possible
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Daiwa's View - Downward bias in underlying inflation metrics
13 November 2025
708 KB
PDF
Underlying inflation indicators exhibit price stickiness
Exclusion of food/high weighting for imputed rents creates downward bias
Time to also focus on headline CPI?
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