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Daiwa's View - Key points for press conference after June BOJ meeting: Inflation expectation trends will determine the future pace of rate hikes
12 June 2026
446 KB
PDF
In response to upside price risks, the basis of policy decisions has shifted from “certainty” to “risk balance
Broadening of cost pass-through is confirmed in corporate goods prices, with price pressures spreading to the midstream stage
If 5-year ahead inflation expectations rise in Tankan, it could bring forward the timing and shorten the intervals of rate hikes
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Daiwa's View - Implications of halting reduction of JGB purchases by BOJ: Balance sheet's landing point in 2035
11 June 2026
466 KB
PDF
BOJ's JGB holdings expected to decline to Y248tn in FY35, with its share to outstanding amount falling to 19%
Relationship between decrease in current account balances and banknotes
Establishing rules for JGB holdings
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Daiwa’s Economic View - World after BOJ’s June rate hike: Inflation in Japan to enter “third wave” from fall through winter
10 June 2026
404 KB
PDF
Upstream prices continue to rise; accelerated passing on of costs to consumer prices
Prices seen rising in fall/winter on rebound following end of subsidies, energy prices to rise after certain lag
Renewed inflation acceleration pressuring both BOJ’s rate hiking leeway and fiscal policy measures
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Daiwa's View - BOJ headed for June rate hike
4 June 2026
423 KB
PDF
Policy delays will materialize through interest rates and exchange rates, shifting the focus to effectiveness of rate hike itself
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Economic Commentary - Inflation overshoot to drive faster BOJ hiking cadence; raise terminal rate call to 1.75%
4 June 2026
617 KB
PDF
Pass-through from PPI to CPI likely faster and larger than past episodes
Core CPI to peak in Jan-Mar 2027 at high end of +3% y/y range, then gradually moderate
Expect next BOJ hike in June, then three hikes per year to 1.75% terminal rate
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Daiwa's View - Policy choices regarding consumption tax cut on food
3 June 2026
366 KB
PDF
Choices under time and institutional constraints, decaying effect on prices, fiscal constraints, and exit problem
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Daiwa's View - JGB yield outlook update: Expectation of three rate hikes per year raises long-term yield forecast by 20bp
2 June 2026
523 KB
PDF
Review of May, and outlook update
Risk of a postponed rate hike, and the yield curve
Investment strategy
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Daiwa's View - Policy choices for BOJ’s quantitative tightening
1 June 2026
358 KB
PDF
Reorganization of policy perceptions behind tapering review argument
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