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Daiwa's View - Market reaction after Upper House election, outlook for JGB market liquidity
22 July 2025
385 KB
PDF
Upper House race resulted in significant loss of seats for ruling parties, but not as damaging as feared
Expect downward pressure on super-long JGB yields if JGB liquidity index (that deteriorated sharply before election) improve
With election now over, next key topics are tariff negotiations and BOJ interest rate hikes
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Daiwa's Economic View - Upper House election results and future framework for administration, fiscal policy
22 July 2025
441 KB
PDF
Ruling parties lost their Upper House majority, but PM Ishiba announced he will remain in office; uncertainty surrounding future political framework, fiscal policy
Ishiba may resign by September following US/Japan tariff talks or due to pressure from within his party
Scale of future fiscal stimulus to unfold in economic measures and scale of budget compilation due out between this fall and end of year
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FX Pulse - Next up: Tariff talks
22 July 2025
516 KB
PDF
LDP-Komeito coalition's Upper House election loss undoubtedly severe, but not as bad as feared
Focus shifting to tariff talks; risk US could pursue tough line on tariffs this time
Key point is Japanese firms' ability to pass through cost of tariffs to customers
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Daiwa's Economic View - What changing price/income elasticity imply about tipping point for tariff impact
18 July 2025
641 KB
PDF
Potential for prolonged tariffs, changes in automakers' behavior
Price elasticity of Japan’s US export volume down, income elasticity up
Factors behind falling price elasticity: shift to higher value added, changes in corporate behavior
Lower price elasticity mitigates tariff shock; risk is US recession
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Daiwa's View - JGB yields surge on momentum for fiscal expansionists
15 July 2025
689 KB
PDF
Latest opinion polls clearly show that ruling parties in danger of losing their majority; super-long JGB yields surged roughly 10bp
With fiscal expansionist parties (DPP, Sanseito) gaining ground, JGB market pricing in retreat from fiscal discipline
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Economic Commentary - Opinion Survey: Interpreting underlying inflation rates and consumer sentiment
14 July 2025
525 KB
PDF
Inflation putting pressure on livelihoods amid rising household inflation expectations
Consumer sentiment is deteriorating, but that might not be factoring in decline in rice prices
FY25 price projection at Jul BOJ MPM expected to be raised, but economic projection will likely be lowered
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Daiwa's Economic View - Ruling LDP/Komeito could expand coalition after Upper House election
11 July 2025
452 KB
PDF
Expanded coalition possible if LDP/Komeito fail to secure majority in Upper House
DPP, other parties seen as potential new coalition partners according to media reports, others
Upward pressure on JGB yields may increase, but focus to then shift to effectiveness of policies vs election pledges
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Daiwa's View - USD-denominated super-long JGB yields
10 July 2025
425 KB
PDF
Super-long JGB yields rose significantly to around 3.0%, but generally valued as fair from global balance perspective
Meanwhile, BOJ’s low policy interest rate stands out globally, making carry & roll-down returns on super-long JGBs very attractive
Once market volatility subsides, both domestic and foreign investors likely to focus more on this investment appeal
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