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2025
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FX Pulse - Different reactions for JGB yields, forex rates at start of Takaichi Administration
27 October 2025
584 KB
PDF
On guard for short-term yen depreciation overshoot
US-Japan finance ministers’ meeting: Focus on not only BOJ rate hike but also discussions on capital flows
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Daiwa's Economic View - Fiscal spending for a backup capital scheme
27 October 2025
384 KB
PDF
Firstly, it is necessary to determine what a backup capital would be
If objective of backup capital scheme were to be to foster regional economic hubs, authorities would likely consider balancing this with regional revitalization grants
It could take several years before a secondary capital was selected; no applicable prefecture may emerge for the time being, particularly if the metropolitan ward system were to become a prerequisite
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Daiwa's View - Key points to note at Oct BOJ MPM: Recognition of economy/prices, spreading support for rate hike
23 October 2025
538 KB
PDF
Domestic economy on track, but high uncertainty assumed for overseas economies
Do not expect major differences in recognition between BOJ and new administration
No major changes in assessment of economy/prices;
the risk balance for economy is also considered to be skewed downside
Expect only board members Tamura and Takata to call for rate hike
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Daiwa's Economic View - Takaichi administration to frontload defense spending increase
23 October 2025
384 KB
PDF
New administration to frontload increase in defense spending to 2% of GDP within FY25
Would increase FY25 supplementary/FY26 initial budgets by around Y4tn each versus initial FY25 budget, but no automatic increase in JGB issuance
Administration to revise defense spending plans from FY27 by end-2026; we focus on budget size, funding
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Daiwa's View - Takaichi’s inauguration as PM suggests BOJ will forgo rate hike in October
22 October 2025
461 KB
PDF
October rate hike is now off the table due to media reports based on sources in the know
Japan’s economy is largely on track with regard to BOJ projections; concerns about domestic factors would be minor if fiscal support were added
If new factors were to impede additional rate hike by BOJ, they would likely be overseas factors
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Daiwa's Economic View - Takaichi coalition government: Accelerator, brake roles for proactive fiscal policy
22 October 2025
389 KB
PDF
Takaichi favors proactive fiscal policy; accelerator/brake roles for both Cabinet (compiles budget) and LDP (decides budget alongside Cabinet)
Coalition partner JIP restored Osaka Prefecture’s financial health through stringent administrative and fiscal reforms
Overall, prioritizing economy over fiscal policy to remain in place with focus on strengthening expansion of supply capacity
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Daiwa's View - BOJ’s quantitative tightening and optimal balance sheet debate
21 October 2025
601 KB
PDF
BOJ’s holdings of JGBs to decrease from Y250tn to just over Y100tn in 10 years
QT suspension debate in US and Japan’s case
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Daiwa's Economic View - JIP to work with LDP outside of cabinet, avoid expanding supplementary budget
20 October 2025
406 KB
PDF
Takaichi administration assured as Japan Innovation Party (JIP) to cooperate with LDP outside of cabinet
LDP-JIP coalition to diminish risk of bigger FY25 supplementary budget
Focus to shift to securing majorities, increasing initial FY26 budget as demanded by JIP
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