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Japan’s Economy Watchers survey points to slightly weaker conditions in January

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s Economy Watchers survey points to slightly weaker conditions in January, but optimism of some improvement ahead.
  • German manufacturing production continued to grow in December.
  • News on inflation expectations, housing and manufacturing ahead in NZ.

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Japan's real consumer spending declines

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan real consumer spending declines in December, but up strongly in Q4; leading index declines in December for the first time since May.
  • German factory orders fell more than anticipated at the end of 2020.
  • Pullback in Aussie retail sales at end-2020 confirmed, but firm over Q4 as a whole.
  • RBA’s Lowe emphasises tightening likely to be distant with new forecasts showing underlying inflation below 2%Y/Y in mid-2023 even in an upside growth scenario.

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BoE to leave policy unchanged and be relatively sanguine about economic outlook

Chris Scicluna
  • BoE to leave policy unchanged and be relatively sanguine about economic outlook.
  • Negative rates likely to be retained as option, but economic case for requiring them likely to be downplayed.
  • Aussie tade surplus widens in Q4, but driven by a sharp improveent in the terms of trade.
  • Kiwi business sentiment rises and inflation pressures stir; dwelling approvals increase to a new record high.

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Japan and China's services PMIs consistent with falling activity

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s services PMI revised up in January, slightly reducing flash decline.
  • China’s Caixin services PMI slumps in January, well below expectations.
  • BTPs rally after Draghi is approached to lead new Italian government.
  • Aussie private house approvals hit record high in December.

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RBA surprises market with A$100bn extension of QE programme

Chris Scicluna
  • RBA leaves interest rate settings unchanged, as expected, but surprises market with A$100bn extension of QE programme as forward guidance remains dovish.
  • Japan’s monetary base grows 18.9%Y/Y in January, but monthly growth slowing.
  • Kiwi home prices rise 12.8%Y/Y to record high in January – fastest pace in almost 4 years.

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