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Post-Brexit deal reached but agreement imposes new barriers to trade

04 January 2021

Chris Scicluna
  • apan: Labour market improves unexpectedly in November, but IP flat, retail sales fall more than expected and construction data soft. Food prices weigh on Tokyo CPI.
  • China: Official PMIs soften slightly in December, but pricing indices notably firmer. Industrial profits continue to rise in November.
  • US: Economic data generally point to waning forward momentum in Q4, with personal spending and housing indicators weakening in November. Durable goods orders continue to recover, however.
  • Australia: Retail sales surged in November, as did imports, but credit growth remained weak.

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US Congress reaches deal on fiscal stimulus

21 December 2020

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s initial FY21 budget confirmed at record ¥106.6trn.
  • PBoC leaves China’s prime lending rates left unchanged.

 

 

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BoJ to conduct assessment of 'further effective and sustainable monetary easing'

18 December 2020

Chris Scicluna
  • BoJ’s preferred core CPI measure falls 0.3%Y/Y in November.
  • We maintain expectation that Brexit deal is likely to be near despite UK statement that negotiations are now “in a serious situation”, which smacks of tactics.
  • UK retail sales fell less than expected in November, consumer confidence firms.
  • Kiwi consumer and business sentiment improves further in December.

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Fed makes minimal changes to QE message amidst broadly unchanged outlook

17 December 2020

Chris Scicluna
  • Aussie employment up 90k in November, driving unemployment rate down to 6.8%.
  • Euro area new car registrations down 12.5%Y/Y and 26.1%YTD/Y in November.
  • Kiwi GDP rebounds 14.0%Q/Q in Q3, above market and erasing pandemic decline.

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Japan's trade surplus widens in November; French retail sales fall

16 December 2020

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s trade surplus widens as forecast in November; both exports and imports weaker than expected but BoJ estimates point to further growth in real terms.
  • Japanese PMIs mixed in December – manufacturing PMI firms, but services PMI falls.
  • UK inflation surprises significantly on the downside.
  • French retail sales down by about one quarter last month.

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