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UK retail sales maintained a downtrend in September

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • UK retail sales fell almost 10% below the Spring 2021 peak, while UK consumer willingness to spend deteriorated further at the start of Q4 
  • Japanese core CPI inflation maintains a steady upwards trend in September
  • European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator likely to report a further deterioration in euro area household sentiment at the start of Q4

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French business surveys suggest welcome resilience

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • German PPI inflation moved sideways at a series high in September, with energy inevitably remaining a significant source of price pressure
  • EU leaders set to discuss energy markets, including possible coordinated purchases and measures to cap prices in wholesale markets

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UK CPI inflation returned back to double-digits in September

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe and Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser to testify before Treasury Select Committee on the Bank’s recent gilt market intervention
  • BoJ likely to step up its bond buying as 10Y JGB yield breached the Bank’s 0.25% upper limit
  • Final euro area HICP inflation release likely to see the headline rate nudged slightly lower from the flash estimate, but still remain at a series high

 

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Japanese tertiary firmer than expected in August

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Final euro area inflation estimates (Wednesday) are likely to confirm headline and core inflation at a record high in September; various sentiment surveys from the euro area are also due this week 
  • UK inflation data (Wednesday) are expected to report that the headline CPI rate rose back above 10%Y/Y in September amid broad-based price pressures

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Gilts rally as UK fiscal U-turn expected

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Chinese inflation data surprise on the downside suggesting some room for PBoC manoeuvre
  • Final French inflation data align with flash estimates; euro area trade deficit set to widen further to new series high on energy prices
  • Retail sales and consumer sentiment the focus in the US

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