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Hopes for US fiscal stimulus and a breaking of Brexit trade deal deadlock

Chris Scicluna

Overview:

  • Equity markets reopen with slight upward bias in Asia on hopes for US fiscal stimulus, breaking of Brexit trade deal deadlock and as BoJ Tankan survey points to improved business conditions.
  • Japan’s Q4 GDP arithmetic off to a good start with manufacturing and services activity up in October.
  • China’s new home prices edge higher.

 

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UK GDP up in October despite the burgeoning 2nd wave of Covid

Chris Scicluna
  • ECB set to extend PEPP purchases and TLTROs: but for how long and by how much?
  • Japan’s MoF Business Outlook Survey points to lift in next week’s key Tankan.
  • Japan’s goods PPI flat in November, Tokyo office vacancies rise to 5-year high.

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Japan’s core machine orders rebound, while China’s CPI falls

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s core machine orders rebound at a record rate in October.
  • China’s CPI falls 0.5%Y/Y in November as pork prices drop again, raw materials lift PPI.
  • German exports continue to outpace imports pushing surplus to largest since February.

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Japan’s Q3 GDP revised up, Reuters Tankan indices improve, but sentiment survey drops

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s Suga says fiscal stimulus to be worth ¥73trn, but general government outlays to increase less than ¥31trn with just over ¥19trn to be funded in 3rd supplementary budget, likely largely via bill issuance.
  • Japan’s Q3 GDP rebound revised up slightly on firmer capex and consumer spending.
  • Japan’s Reuters Tankan indices improve to 10-month high, but Economy Watchers survey points to a sharp drop in sentiment in November as coronavirus cases rise.

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Sterling slides and Gilts rally as tabloids suggest Johnson ready to quit Brexit talks

Chris Scicluna
  • Japanese consumption up again & leading index at 16-month high ahead of 3rd supplementary budget.
  • China’s trade surplus hits record high as exports surge but imports remain subdued.
  • German IP surges at start of Q4 but might be sufficient to offset services weakness.

 

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