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2019

  • Outlook for 10Y JGB Auction

    Outlook for 10Y JGB Auction

    31 July 2019 661 KB PDF
    • BOJ goes 'a step further', but optimism unlikely to grow about tomorrow's primary sale
  • Supplementary Budget and JGB Issuance

    Supplementary Budget and JGB Issuance

    29 July 2019 198 KB PDF
    • With the October consumption tax hike a done deal, there is growing speculation on a large-scale supplementary budget
    • The front-loading issuance for FY19 refunding bonds is a record high of around Y52.5tn.
  • Summertime for the central banks

    Summertime for the central banks

    29 July 2019 606 KB PDF
    • BoJ likely to take no action amid stable exchange rates, tenacious policy and economic assessment as expected
  • Forex Market View - Manufacturing PMIs affect the strength of currencies

    Forex Market View - Manufacturing PMIs affect the strength of currencies

    26 July 2019 499 KB PDF
    • The trend in manufacturing PMIs varies across countries, but no signs of recovery
    • Positive correlation between PMI level and currency fluctuation
    • Positive correlation between PMI change and currency fluctuation
  • Reflecting result of Upper House election

    Reflecting result of Upper House election

    22 July 2019 565 KB PDF
    • Even if economic measures fomulated, full-scale rise in JGB yields unlikely
  • Outlook for 40Y JGB Auction

    Outlook for 40Y JGB Auction

    22 July 2019 673 KB PDF
    • Tomorrow's auction is be held at the lowest bidding yield level since the auction in July 2016
    • In the current environment, the 40Y JGB yield may decline close to 0.3% in the medium/long term; therefore the 0.4% yield level would not discourage market participants from buying new 40Y JGBs
    • Gauging demand from real-money investors at the current level, we would like to think of our bidding to take new 40Y JGBs, if needed, at the 0.4% level
    • It would be worth considering switiching out from the 30Y sector
  • Events and focal points after upper house election

    Events and focal points after upper house election

    19 July 2019 1089 KB PDF
    • Constitutional revision, trade talks, Diet dissolution timing and supplementary budget
  • Forex Market View - Where the USD/JPY is heading

    Forex Market View - Where the USD/JPY is heading

    17 July 2019 607 KB PDF
    • Long term rates tied to US economic trend
    • Real rates may have room to decline, depending on US economy