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  • Daiwa's View - BoJ becoming aware of both upside & downside risks

    Daiwa's View - BoJ becoming aware of both upside & downside risks

    2 October 2024 319 KB PDF
    • One reason behind July rate hike was “risk management approach”
    • As Japan (BOJ) has seriously monitored only downside risks for past 25 years, we have impression that market slow to follow BOJ’s recent change to also monitoring upside risks
    • Increased political uncertainty (US presidential election, LDP presidential race) to reinforce need for risk management; does not necessarily mean setback for BOJ rate hikes
  • Economic Commentary - BoJ Summary of Opinions and Tankan survey

    Economic Commentary - BoJ Summary of Opinions and Tankan survey

    2 October 2024 522 KB PDF
    • Birth of Ishiba administration, snap election set for 27 Oct
    • Likely to follow policy framework direction laid out by Kishida administration 
    • Expectations for better communication based on Sep “Summary of Opinions”
    • Sep Tankan survey confirms no major changes for corporate activity
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Outlook for Japan's economy, policy rate

    Daiwa's Economic View - Outlook for Japan's economy, policy rate

    1 October 2024 579 KB PDF
    • Expect only modest growth for Japan’s economy in FY24 as consumption recovery is delayed 
    • Forecast core CPI to remain above 2.0%Y/Y toward FY25; price outlook risks balanced to upside and downside
    • BoJ’s decision to hike rates heavily dependent on assessment of US economy; expect next hike in Jan-Mar 2025, assuming soft landing for US economy
  • Public Finance Watch

    Public Finance Watch

    30 September 2024 377 KB PDF
    • Following election of new PM Ishiba, press speculating Lower House to be dissolved on 14 Oct for snap election on 27 Oct
    • Schedule almost same as that after PM Kishida was elected three years ago; if instructions to formulate economic stimulus package issued before dissolving Lower House, Cabinet could approve supplementary budget proposal for FY24 in late Nov
    • Cabinet to determine initial FY25 budget proposal after 20 Dec, as usual
  • Economic Commentary - BoJ Goveror's speech, future focus points

    Economic Commentary - BoJ Goveror's speech, future focus points

    25 September 2024 498 KB PDF
    • Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that BoJ will not hurry to raise rates as it seeks to carefully assess state of US economy 
    • Runoff between Ishiba/Takaichi likely to follow 27 Sep LDP leadership vote; Ishiba seems to have a slight advantage
    • Focus in BoJ Tankan (1 Oct) on corporate earnings/behavior based on changes in backdrop since Aug
  • Politics Watch - LDP presidential election: Pro-Abenomics, anti-Abenomics showdown?

    Politics Watch - LDP presidential election: Pro-Abenomics, anti-Abenomics showdown?

    24 September 2024 429 KB PDF
    • Focus now on runoff outcome; still unclear, but Ishiba/Takaichi showdown possible
    • Outcome unclear even if runoff between Ishiba/Takaichi; still, Ishiba has slight advantage as “face” for general election.
    • Ishiba/Takaichi runoff would be closely watched as battle over Abenomics; policies may not differ as much as images suggests
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BoJ in no rush, assessing US economy

    Daiwa's Economic View - BoJ in no rush, assessing US economy

    24 September 2024 500 KB PDF
    • BoJ Governor Ueda’s Sep press conference: Enough time to make policy decisions Japan’s economy now on track, but uncertainty for US economy Ueda more concerned about US economy than Fed Chairman Powell
    • Impacts of minimum wage hike as new point of interest for Japan’s economy
    • Authors’ main scenario calls for additional rate hike in Jan-Mar 2025 (policy outlook table provided) Hike as early as Jan possible, assuming soft landing for US economy
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Vector differences, but also similarities for US/Japan monetary policy

    Daiwa's Economic View - Vector differences, but also similarities for US/Japan monetary policy

    20 September 2024 591 KB PDF
    • Japan/US monetary policy diverge, forex trends change Fed begins rate cuts, judgement difficult around inflection points BOJ/Fed both in no hurry, both adjusting from extremes
    • BoJ’s rate hike is foregone conclusion, mental exercise suggests 25bp hike once every six months Past experience suggests overseas factors could prevent hike; depends on US economy this time
    • BoJ to put rate hike on hold this autumn; Oct warrants attention