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Economic Commentary - ESP Forecast Survey
16 December 2025
471 KB
PDF
Consensus expects core CPI to exceed 2% again in Jan–Mar 2027
Excluding policy effects, CPI is projected to remain above 2%
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Daiwa’s Economic View - December Tankan: Supports December BOJ rate hike
15 December 2025
502 KB
PDF
Business sentiment, earnings, perceived labor shortages imply substantial wage hikes
Concerns about sustained high long-term inflation
Tankan’s implications for BOJ messaging on terminal rate
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Daiwa's View - Key issues surrounding BOJ’s r* estimates and monetary policy messaging
15 December 2025
482 KB
PDF
Expect no major revisions for neutral rate of interest range; estimated neutral rate of interest will not be used as primary messaging tool
While maintaining guidance for further rate hikes, actual policy decisions will be made based on economic/price conditions, including whether rate hikes disrupt financial conditions such as lending trends
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Daiwa's View - Points of interest regarding Dec BOJ MPM: Review of neutral interest rate and signaling about the pace of rate hikes
12 December 2025
722 KB
PDF
Lower bound for the estimated neutral interest rate might be raised from 1.0% to 1.25%
Hawkish messaging via outlook for Japan’s economic activity/prices, conduct of monetary policy
BOJ Governor Ueda not expected to show any rate-hiking urgency at post-meeting press conference
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Daiwa's Economic View - Business Outlook Survey: Wage increases are likely to exceed 5% in 2026 spring wage negotiations
11 December 2025
505 KB
PDF
Business sentiment has improved across sectors; capex appetite remains solid
Projected recurring profit for motor vehicle/accessory makers significantly revised upward
December Tankan survey results are unlikely to hold any surprises
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Daiwa's Economic View - Burden on Japanese households as seen from Engel’s coefficient
10 December 2025
471 KB
PDF
Impact of soaring food prices varies by age, income level
K-shaped disparity among household finances
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Daiwa's View - BOJ’s neutral rate estimates: Separating the medium- to long-term guideline from the near-term policy path?
8 December 2025
456 KB
PDF
BOJ will very likely indicate a guideline for neutral interest rate at next week's MPM
If communication can make a distinction between near-term policy path and neutral rate, it could potentially have an effect comparable to Fed’s longer-run federal funds rate
In anticipation of flattening pressure on the long-term to superlong zone as uncertainty recedes, we forecast that 10s30s flattener trade will be promising
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Daiwa's Economic View - Jul-Sep 2025 GDP (2nd estimates) could serve as factor to support fiscal expansion
8 December 2025
522 KB
PDF
Jul-Sep 2025 GDP revised downward, but the level increased significantly due to benchmark revision
Real GDP for Oct-Dec 2025 expected to turn positive; FY25 real GDP growth rate expected at +0.8%
Downward revision to GDP and debt-to-GDP ratio likely to increase pressure for fiscal expansion
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