Tokyo Research

FILTER DOCUMENTS

Category Clear

FILTER DOCUMENTS

Archive Reset

2025

2024

2023

  • Daiwa's Economic View

    Daiwa's Economic View

    19 August 2024 501 KB PDF
    • Apr-Jun 2024 real GDP improves, but weak underlying trend for private consumption
    • Economy expected to grow only moderately in FY24 as consumers remain thrifty, but inflation likely to hold near BoJ’s 2% price stability target
    • Next rate hike expected in Mar 2025, after assessing domestic/international economic conditions and results of 2025 spring labor-management wage negotiations
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    13 August 2024 461 KB PDF
    • Revising FX forecasts: Yen carry trade collapses
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    8 August 2024 443 KB PDF
    • Fed to begin cutting rates in Sep; expect 5 - 10 cuts through end-Mar 2025 
    • Changes/caveats have emerged for BoJ’s "on track"/"upside risk" assumptions that drove July rate hike; further hike in 2024 now less likely
  • Politics Watch

    Politics Watch

    8 August 2024 327 KB PDF
    • Future trends for LDP presidential election
  • Iwashita’s Economic & Market Watch

    Iwashita’s Economic & Market Watch

    2 August 2024 404 KB PDF
    • Ueda-led BOJ likely to enter gradual rate-hiking phase
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    31 July 2024 676 KB PDF
    • BoJ opted to hike again at July MPM, in line with prior media reports; consistent with Outlook Report, reflects BoJ’s call that time was right to scale back easing; plans to cut JGB purchases to around Y3tn per month in Jan-Mar 2026 as expected
    • July Outlook Report forecasts sustained trend inflation of around 2%; BoJ to monitor service prices, consumer spending trends in gauging need for next rate hike; explanation of policy conduct, hawkish tone signal intent to continue normalizing
  • Iwashita's Economic & Market Watch

    Iwashita's Economic & Market Watch

    26 July 2024 364 KB PDF
    • BoJ to wait until last minute before making July rate hike decision
  • Daiwa's View - Consensus forming for BoJ’s QT; anticipate yield curve flattening pressure

    Daiwa's View - Consensus forming for BoJ’s QT; anticipate yield curve flattening pressure

    24 July 2024 452 KB PDF
    • “Bond Market Group” meeting minutes include opinion BoJ should lower its monthly JGB purchase amount to about ¥3.0tn 
    • In that case, BoJ’s holdings of JGBs would decline to ¥523tn (48% of all JGBs outstanding) in two years
    • Strong impact on medium- to long-term zone within JGB maturity structure; to act as yield curve flattening factor