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2024

2023

  • Daiwa's Economic View - BoJ in no rush, assessing US economy

    Daiwa's Economic View - BoJ in no rush, assessing US economy

    24 September 2024 500 KB PDF
    • BoJ Governor Ueda’s Sep press conference: Enough time to make policy decisions Japan’s economy now on track, but uncertainty for US economy Ueda more concerned about US economy than Fed Chairman Powell
    • Impacts of minimum wage hike as new point of interest for Japan’s economy
    • Authors’ main scenario calls for additional rate hike in Jan-Mar 2025 (policy outlook table provided) Hike as early as Jan possible, assuming soft landing for US economy
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Vector differences, but also similarities for US/Japan monetary policy

    Daiwa's Economic View - Vector differences, but also similarities for US/Japan monetary policy

    20 September 2024 591 KB PDF
    • Japan/US monetary policy diverge, forex trends change Fed begins rate cuts, judgement difficult around inflection points BOJ/Fed both in no hurry, both adjusting from extremes
    • BoJ’s rate hike is foregone conclusion, mental exercise suggests 25bp hike once every six months Past experience suggests overseas factors could prevent hike; depends on US economy this time
    • BoJ to put rate hike on hold this autumn; Oct warrants attention
  • Daiwa's View - USD/JPY outlook after Fed starts cutting rates

    Daiwa's View - USD/JPY outlook after Fed starts cutting rates

    20 September 2024 404 KB PDF
    • Risk of rising US rates if Fed’s outlook is on track
    • Assume exchange rate in upper USD/JPY140 range if likelihood of soft landing increases 
    • Sharp yen appreciation if Fed cuts rates in earnest due to hard landing
  • Daiwa's View - Preview of Sep BoJ MPM

    Daiwa's View - Preview of Sep BoJ MPM

    18 September 2024 678 KB PDF
    • BoJ to put rate hikes on hold this autumn
    • Officials are not ruling out Dec or Jan 2025 rate hike at this point
    • For now, we should monitor trends with market and other central banks, including the Fed
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BoJ to put rate hike on hold this autumn

    Daiwa's Economic View - BoJ to put rate hike on hold this autumn

    17 September 2024 713 KB PDF
    • Japan weakened by heat waves, earthquakes, and typhoons in summer of 2024 Japan’s weaknesses: Low energy/food self-sufficiency, changing demographics
    • Paths Japan should take: Importance of fiscal soundness, promotion of energy policy Calls for “wise spending” ahead of LDP presidential election on 27 Sep Ishiba, Kono reviewing Abenomics, calling for monetary policy normalization
    • BoJ to put rate hike on hold this autumn; eyes on Governor Ueda’s press conference
  • Politics Watch

    Politics Watch

    13 September 2024 500 KB PDF
    • LDP presidential election announced, campaigning underway; focus on economic, fiscal, and monetary policies
  • Economic Commentary - Speech from BoJ Policy Board member Tamura

    Economic Commentary - Speech from BoJ Policy Board member Tamura

    13 September 2024 541 KB PDF
    • Hawkish Tamura corrected unintended impression of his March speech Wants monetary policy normalization, neutral interest rate of at least 1.0% Intends to proceed with gradual 25bp rate hikes by second half of projection period
    • Considers impact of short-term rate hike on households, businesses
    • Wage hike benefits vary by age group; spurring on economic metabolism
    • BOJ’s challenge is better communication with market
  • Economic Commentary - Jul Monthly Labour Survey: Reflects big wage hikes from spring labor-management wage negotiations

    Economic Commentary - Jul Monthly Labour Survey: Reflects big wage hikes from spring labor-management wage negotiations

    5 September 2024 532 KB PDF
    • Scheduled cash earnings (common data set, full-time employees) up 3.0%Y/Y; confirmed reflection of big wage hikes from spring negotiations, summer bonuses also strong
    • Various wage statistics also pin cash earnings at around up 3.0%Y/Y; increased likelihood of virtuous wage-price cycle, seen as catalyst supporting BOJ rate hikes 
    • Still, observed wage situation alone not enough to determine whether rates should be hiked; also need to check economic, political, financial, and capital market trends, both domestic and overseas