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2024

2023

  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    2 February 2024 381 KB PDF
    • New anomaly in new NISA era?
    • Yen selling towards Tokyo middle rate on second business day of every month
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    31 January 2024 687 KB PDF
    • Dec JOLTS report / Quarterly Refunding stabilized term premium
    • US yields are continuing to face downward pressure on term premium in line with downward revisions to borrowing estimates in Quarterly Refunding
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    30 January 2024 614 KB PDF
    • USD/JPY hedging costs are likely to enter downtrend
    • USD/JPY basis tends to narrow in line with loosening of US financial conditions
    • Slowdown in pace of QT is expected to contribute to loosening of financial conditions
    • Rate hikes by BOJ would also contribute to a decline in hedging costs, but pace of Fed rate cuts is more important
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    24 January 2024 715 KB PDF
    • Jan MPM: BOJ presents market with positive stance
    • New wording added to Outlook Report that “The likelihood of realizing this outlook has continued to gradually rise”
    • Governor emphasized in press conference that accommodative financial conditions would be maintained
    • Upside for long-term rate will be limited as long as leeway for rate hikes is limited
  • Politics Watch

    Politics Watch

    23 January 2024 340 KB PDF
    • Sudden disbanding of Kishida faction results in modest good fortune for PM Kishida
    • Modest benefits from sudden disbanding of Kishida faction; early mass Cabinet resignation now less likely
    • Candidate backed by ruling LDP wins Hachioji mayoral election in upset
    • Respondents in Yomiuri, Asahi Shimbun polls largely applaud disbanding of Kishida faction; declining support for Kishida’s administration temporarily stops
    • Drastic political fundraising/faction reforms, income growth outpacing price hikes needed to truly shore up support for current administration
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    22 January 2024 455 KB PDF
    • Signposts for 2024—Expected BOJ Jan meeting highlights 
    • BOJ Jan Outlook Report forecast FY24 core CPI likely revised downward, but big move for core-core CPI unlikely
    • New messaging at BOJ Gov Ueda’s press conference? Wage hike effects, forward-looking statements, increased certainty for realizing 2% price stability target since last meeting? 
    • BOJ must not miss golden opportunity!
  • Politics Watch

    Politics Watch

    22 January 2024 320 KB PDF
    • LDP fundraising scandal could hamper break from deflation
    • Investigation into ruling LDP’s fundraising scandal has come to a close for now; ruling LDP avoids worst-case scenario, but summary indictment of Kishida faction’s former treasurer is noteworthy
    • PM Kishida focusing on overcoming deflation, especially wage hikes exceeding rising prices
    • Efforts to break from deflation could stall if Kishida held accountable as former head of punished faction, thus limiting his ability to push for higher wages
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    19 January 2024 444 KB PDF
    • Market anomalies related to US presidential elections
    • After presidential elections, we tend to see a rise in stock prices and the USD/JPY rate, and a decline in the Dollar Index
    • When former President Donald Trump won in 2016, we saw a rise in stock prices, the USD/JPY rate, and the Dollar Index
    • If former President Donald Trump were to win this time, the reaction may be similar to that in 2016, but US economic trends should be monitored carefully