Tokyo Research

FILTER DOCUMENTS

Category Clear

FILTER DOCUMENTS

Archive Reset

2024

2023

Subscribe to RSS feed
  • Public Finance Watch

    Public Finance Watch

    4 January 2024 530 KB PDF
    • FY24 JGB issuance plan, draft budget, timing for issuing CT bonds
    • MOF plans to issue Y1.7tn in CT bonds with decisions on maturities/issuance timing expected around Mar; likely options are one issuance (Apr-Jun) or two (Apr-Jun + from Jul)
    • Calendar-based JGB market issuance plan cut by almost Y20tn; flowbased avg maturity has lengthened to about same level as before coronavirus
    • Draft budget supports public sector wage hikes; goal of returning spending to normal remains difficult due to many issues other than coronavirus; breaking from 30 years of deflation seen as essential
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    29 December 2023 326 KB PDF
    • BOJ Governor Ueda’s NHK interview and December Summary of Opinions
    • Room for discerning virtuous cycle, while still maintaining free hand; message reduces likelihood of Jan rate hike to some extent
    • Also signaled intention to not wait until July, when wage data for SMEs becomes available; left with impression that time frame for policy change has narrowed considerably
    • Honest determination to move to “world with interest rates”; discussed rate hike timing, not pros and cons
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    27 December 2023 442 KB PDF
    • Labour productivity and yen exchange rate
    • Sluggish labour productivity growth in Japan contributing to lower real effective yen exchange rate
    • USD/JPY actual exchange rate above purchasing power parity due to lower real effective yen exchange rate
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    27 December 2023 467 KB PDF
    • Will households’ foreign currency investments change?
    • Significant yen selling potential from change in households’ attitude toward investing
    • However, households headed by someone 60 or older hold 63.5% of all household financial assets in Japan; tend to value stability
    • Outward investment in securities much higher than Y3.0tn per year could suggest change in household investment behaviour
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    26 December 2023 1285 KB PDF
    • Outlooks for UST and JGB Yields in 2024
    • 10yr UST yield: Core range of 3.7%~4.2% for now, 3.4%~4.0% after rate cuts start
    • See 10yr UST yield of 3.2% at end-2024, but significant uncertainties including presidential election
    • JGB yields: See 10yr JGB yield of 0.5% at end-2024, declining in tandem with 10yr UST yield
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    21 December 2023 630 KB PDF
    • US long-term yield declined to the 3.8% level: Considering the next threshold levels
    • The next thresholds for US long-term yield are 3.4% and 2.9%
    • Corresponding 10-year JPY swap rates are 0.7% and 0.5%
    • Unless BOJ reduces JGB purchase operations, 10-year JGB yield could decline below 0.5%, with a risk of it falling to 0.3%
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    20 December 2023 645 KB PDF
    • BOJ Dec meeting was totally non-committal regarding normalization
    • Forward guidance was maintained in statement
    • No signal indicating elimination of negative interest rates at subsequent meetings
    • Providing messaging while aware of the forward guidance trap
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    18 December 2023 464 KB PDF
    • What will BOJ do at the last meeting in 2023?
    • Focal points of BOJ’s Dec meeting ahead of likely policy exit in 2024; Will BOJ signal plans to end negative rates in January 2024? Bright spots include sense of labor shortage, better corporate earnings, and medium/long-term inflation outlooks; Dec economic assessment may include downward revision for private consumption