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Daiwa's Economic View - Tax revenue overshoot not enough to cover LDP/Komeito cash handout promise
4 July 2025
458 KB
PDF
Ruling parties planning cash handouts to curry favor ahead of Upper House election, but expected FY24 tax revenue surplus not enough to cover those costs; Upper House election looking increasingly unfavorable for ruling parties
Tax revenue increase positive for nation’s finances, but if increase driven by cost-push inflation, portion of measures to address high prices could be cancelled out
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Daiwa's Economic View - Five scenarios for US-Japan tariff negotiations and impact on Japanese economy
3 July 2025
472 KB
PDF
Tariff agreement by 9 July now looks less likely
If additional tariffs remain in place, would depress real GDP by 1.1ppt
Even in this scenario, BOJ could explore rate hike in Jan-Mar 2026
No direct impact from Trump tariffs even on autos at this point
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Daiwa's View - Is there really a risk of JGB yields rising sharply due to BOJ’s QT?
1 July 2025
742 KB
PDF
Market factoring in stock effect drop off; real issue is 95% increase in JGB private-sector holdings
Foreign investor participation as backstop for rising JGB yields
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Daiwa's Economic View - Upper House election and fiscal policy outlook following Tokyo Assembly election
1 July 2025
497 KB
PDF
LDP/Komeito lost significant number of seats in Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election
Ruling parties facing tough battle in Upper House election as well with focus on whether they can maintain majority (including uncontested seats)
If majority is maintained, Ishiba administration will remain in power and continue pursuing fiscal consolidation; if ruling parties lose their majority, they may consider expanding coalition or changing policies
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Daiwa's Economic View - June Tankan: Little downward pressure on firms, prolonged uncertainty a concern
1 July 2025
498 KB
PDF
Unexpected improvement for manufacturers; limited negative impact on corporate sentiment
Implies steady progress toward BOJ's 2% price stability target
Should make BOJ more confident about raising rates, but likely to stay cautious given prolonged uncertainty
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Economic Commentary - June Tokyo CPI: Wave of cost pass-throughs may be easing
27 June 2025
510 KB
PDF
Inflation slowed in June, mainly on policy factors
Wave of cost pass-throughs may be easing
Services inflation mainly reflects pass-through of rising goods costs
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Daiwa's View - Speed of QT and importance of balancing JGB issuance and purchases
27 June 2025
433 KB
PDF
Among JGBs currently held by BOJ, about 30% (Y163tn) will be redeemed within next two years and roughly 50% (Y273tn) will be redeemed within four years
When BOJ redeems its JGBs, private sector holdings of JGBs will increase through refinancing by MOF; balance between issuance and purchase maturities over next few years will be significant from perspective of interest rate risk
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Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ June MPM Summary of Opinions
26 June 2025
537 KB
PDF
Consensus is to watch and wait amid ongoing uncertainty
May take until after summer to assess state of real economy
But BOJ emphasizes upside risks to inflation
Key focus at July MPM: Comments on balance of risks to economy/inflation
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