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2024

2023

  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    26 December 2023 1285 KB PDF
    • Outlooks for UST and JGB Yields in 2024
    • 10yr UST yield: Core range of 3.7%~4.2% for now, 3.4%~4.0% after rate cuts start
    • See 10yr UST yield of 3.2% at end-2024, but significant uncertainties including presidential election
    • JGB yields: See 10yr JGB yield of 0.5% at end-2024, declining in tandem with 10yr UST yield
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    21 December 2023 630 KB PDF
    • US long-term yield declined to the 3.8% level: Considering the next threshold levels
    • The next thresholds for US long-term yield are 3.4% and 2.9%
    • Corresponding 10-year JPY swap rates are 0.7% and 0.5%
    • Unless BOJ reduces JGB purchase operations, 10-year JGB yield could decline below 0.5%, with a risk of it falling to 0.3%
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    20 December 2023 645 KB PDF
    • BOJ Dec meeting was totally non-committal regarding normalization
    • Forward guidance was maintained in statement
    • No signal indicating elimination of negative interest rates at subsequent meetings
    • Providing messaging while aware of the forward guidance trap
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    18 December 2023 464 KB PDF
    • What will BOJ do at the last meeting in 2023?
    • Focal points of BOJ’s Dec meeting ahead of likely policy exit in 2024; Will BOJ signal plans to end negative rates in January 2024? Bright spots include sense of labor shortage, better corporate earnings, and medium/long-term inflation outlooks; Dec economic assessment may include downward revision for private consumption
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    13 December 2023 523 KB PDF
    • US November CPI: No downside surprise, but no upside surprise either
    • Steady progress for disinflation process with some “bumps” along the way
    • Largely neutral impact on UST yields, monitoring impact on JGB yields
    • Narrowing LCH-JSCC spread suggests JGB short covering by foreign investors
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    13 December 2023 662 KB PDF
    • Hedging costs in 2024
    • Major change on the US economy and Fed monetary policy outlooks
    • Could there be a significant decline in hedging costs from 2025?
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    12 December 2023 505 KB PDF
    • Market insufficiently factoring in end of BOJ’s negative rate at this stage
    • Rate hikes were implemented in past after first factoring in hike of 0.5% or more
    • Insufficient factoring in at this stage makes surprise more likely
    • Is “assessment meeting” an option?
  • Apple Inc. (AAPL US)

    Apple Inc. (AAPL US)

    11 December 2023 400 KB PDF
    • Maintaining a strong financial position