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2019

  • Reflecting result of Upper House election

    Reflecting result of Upper House election

    22 July 2019 565 KB PDF
    • Even if economic measures fomulated, full-scale rise in JGB yields unlikely
  • Outlook for 40Y JGB Auction

    Outlook for 40Y JGB Auction

    22 July 2019 673 KB PDF
    • Tomorrow's auction is be held at the lowest bidding yield level since the auction in July 2016
    • In the current environment, the 40Y JGB yield may decline close to 0.3% in the medium/long term; therefore the 0.4% yield level would not discourage market participants from buying new 40Y JGBs
    • Gauging demand from real-money investors at the current level, we would like to think of our bidding to take new 40Y JGBs, if needed, at the 0.4% level
    • It would be worth considering switiching out from the 30Y sector
  • Events and focal points after upper house election

    Events and focal points after upper house election

    19 July 2019 1089 KB PDF
    • Constitutional revision, trade talks, Diet dissolution timing and supplementary budget
  • Forex Market View - Where the USD/JPY is heading

    Forex Market View - Where the USD/JPY is heading

    17 July 2019 607 KB PDF
    • Long term rates tied to US economic trend
    • Real rates may have room to decline, depending on US economy
  • Outlook for 20Y JGB auction

    Outlook for 20Y JGB auction

    16 July 2019 611 KB PDF
    • New 20Y JGBs to be redeemed in June 2039, JL169, are expected to carry a 0.3% or 0.2% coupon
    • Auction will likely be conducted around the upper end of the 20Y JGB yield range since the previous auction
  • Can Japan's economy weather consumption tax hike?

    Can Japan's economy weather consumption tax hike?

    9 July 2019 760 KB PDF
    • Risk is further decline in consumption propensity after tax hike
  • Change in market trends

    Change in market trends

    8 July 2019 558 KB PDF
    • Pause in "easing domio" would be positive for Japanese market
  • Outlook for 5Y JGB auction

    Outlook for 5Y JGB auction

    8 July 2019 679 KB PDF
    • An average result is epected at tomorrow's auction for new 5Y JGBs in maturity basket (JS140 to be redeemed in June 2024). We would like to think about our bidding stance, assuming that the 5Y JGB yield will move in the range centred at -0.27% to -0.23% over the next month.
    • In terms of the relative value, it would be worth considering switching out from the 7-10Y sectors.