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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

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  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    31 January 2023 151 KB PDF
    • Employment cost index: slower in Q4, but still brisk
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    31 January 2023 487 KB PDF
    • Despite confirmation of minimal euro area GDP growth in Q4, a tick up in French inflation and continued German labour market resilience, euro govvies made modest gains as German retail sales slumped and an ECB survey signalled a further tightening in credit conditions.
    • Gilts also made modest gains as UK mortgage approvals fell sharply to the lowest since January 2009 aside from the initial pandemic trough.  
  • European Banks - Quarterly ESG Update

    European Banks - Quarterly ESG Update

    30 January 2023 1432 KB PDF
    • ESG bond issuance volumes set for moderate growth in 2023 as uncertainties set to subside
    • COP15 puts biodiversity centre stage among ESG investors after landmark framework was agreed. Market-led initiatives could pave way for timely adaptation of disclosure requirements
    • Primary market volumes declined in 4Q22 for SSAs and FIGs. 2023 ESG supply expected from inaugural transactions from smaller sovereigns as well as expanded agency and Supra mandates
    • Secondary market spreads and greeniums less volatile in 4Q22 but remained exposed to liquidity constraints. New policies and greater investments into clean energy expected to provide relief
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    30 January 2023 444 KB PDF
    • Bunds made notable losses as Spanish inflation surprised on the upside and a marked acceleration in Irish GDP more than offset a modest contraction in Germany.  
    • Gilts were little changed on a quiet start to the week for UK economic releases.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    27 January 2023 357 KB PDF
    • Despite some softer euro area bank lending figures and a downbeat French consumer survey, Bunds fell as Spanish Q4 GDP beat expectations and markets looked ahead to next week’s ECB policy announcements. 
    • Gilts also made losses on a quiet end to the week for UK economic news, as attention turned to the BoE policy decision and updated forecasts due on Thursday.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    27 January 2023 295 KB PDF
    • FOMC: decelerating inflation opens a door to a 25 basis point change; possible mention of a pause, but that hurdle is high
    • U.S. GDP: solid in Q4, but challenges in Q1 and beyond
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    26 January 2023 245 KB PDF
    • GDP: firm in Q4, but questions about sustainability
    • Durables: Aircraft led jump in December International trade in goods: both sides of trade ledger contribute to deficit slippage
    • New home sales: sideways movement at a low level in 22-H2
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    25 January 2023 265 KB PDF
    • Bunds ended the day little changed, even as the German ifo business survey implied a gradual recovery over coming quarters, and further ECB Governing Council members called for at least two further hikes of 50bps.  
    • Longer-dated Gilts made modest gains as UK producer input prices declined the most since April 2020, while services PPI inflation fell back too.