London & NY Research

  • JAPAN

    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2025

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    19 September 2025 362 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses while a survey suggested that French business conditions remain broadly stable despite political uncertainty and strikes.
    • Gilts also made losses as UK public borrowing significantly exceeded expectations, retail sales growth remained steady, but consumer confidence deteriorated.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    19 September 2025 394 KB PDF
    • Updated Fed call: further cuts in 2025 and 2026 in support of the labor market
    • The path ahead for the Fed: robust debate likely given competing dual mandate objectives
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    18 September 2025 287 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as the German government announced extra issuance for the coming quarter while euro area construction output rose at the start of Q3.
    • Gilts followed the trend lower as the BoE slowed the pace of QT but left rates unchanged and signalled concerns about ‘prominent’ upside risks to the UK inflation outlook.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    17 September 2025 333 KB PDF
    • Despite a modest downwards revision to euro area headline inflation, Bunds were little changed as core inflation continued to flatline above target.
    • Gilts were also little changed as UK inflation moved sideways at almost double the 2% target but a drop in core inflation left the door open to a November rate cut.
  • US FOMC Review

    US FOMC Review

    17 September 2025 241 KB PDF
    • FOMC action: officials ratified market expectations with a cut of 25 basis points in the target range for the federal funds rate to 4 to 4-1/4 percent, although division over the path of policy remains substantial
    • Powell press conference: challenges to balancing both sides of dual mandate remain, but cut in support of the labor market made sense from a risk management perspective
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    16 September 2025 299 KB PDF
    • Bunds were little changed while data confirmed that euro area IP returned to growth in July and a survey reported continued investor optimism in the German economic outlook.
    • Gilts made losses despite a continued moderation in UK private sector pay growth and a slight drop in employee payrolls.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    16 September 2025 258 KB PDF
    • Retail sales: better than expected in August; higher prices tied to tariffs had an impact, but real sales appear to have increased as well; risks remain elevated entering Q4
    • Industrial production: increases in manufacturing and mining offset decline in utilities, though trend remains subdued
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    15 September 2025 394 KB PDF
    • With limited market reaction to Friday’s French sovereign credit rating downgrade, longer-dated Bunds made modest gains as data suggested that euro area goods exports stabilised in July but remained well below the Q2 average.
    • Gilts followed the global trend higher on a quiet day for UK economic news.