London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2025

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  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    19 December 2025 417 KB PDF
    • 2026 outlook: U.S. economy to remain on track, boosted by tailwinds from monetary and tax policy, although downside risks remain
    • Monetary policy: further easing expected amid softening labor market and decelerating inflation
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    18 December 2025 399 KB PDF
    • While the ECB revised higher its inflation forecast for 2026 and the German debt agency confirmed a big increase in issuance next year, longer-dated Bunds followed USTs slightly higher.
    • While the BoE eased by 25bps and signalled that Bank Rate will likely maintain a gradual downward path, shorter-dated Gilts made losses as several BoE policymakers remained cautious with respect to the near-term outlook.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    18 December 2025 225 KB PDF
    • CPI: November data suggest notable cooling, although some skepticism necessary given disruptions to data collection tied to the government shutdown
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    17 December 2025 337 KB PDF
    • While December’s ifo business survey reported less upbeat expectations for German economic conditions in the first half of 2026, Bunds followed USTs lower after euro area inflation in November was revised down.
    • Gilts made gains across the curve after November’s CPI inflation data surprised to the downside, cementing the likelihood of a BoE rate cut.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    16 December 2025 349 KB PDF
    • Bunds made modest gains as the euro area flash December PMIs surprised to the downside, albeit remaining consistent with an acceleration in GDP growth in Q4.
    • While UK unemployment jumped in October and private regular pay growth slowed, Gilts made losses after the flash PMIs exceeded expectations.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    16 December 2025 307 KB PDF
    • Employment report: tepid payroll growth in November after October decline; unemployment rate jumped to 4.6 percent
    • Retail sales: solid, if unspectacular, start in the fourth quarter
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    15 December 2025 267 KB PDF
    • Bunds made modest gains while euro area industrial production figures reported the strongest growth in five months in October, albeit with significant variation across sub-sectors.
    • Gilts followed the global trend higher on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    12 December 2025 403 KB PDF
    • Longer-dated Bunds followed the global trend lower, while the final November German inflation data showed that the jump in the headline rate related to likely temporary factors.
    • Shorter-dated Gilts made gains after UK GDP fell in October raising risks of a contraction in Q4 and reinforcing the likelihood of a December Bank Rate cut.