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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2026

2025

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  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    27 March 2026 415 KB PDF
    • Updated U.S. economic outlook: growth on track (for now), although downside risks have intensified on account of conflict in the Middle East
    • Inflation: higher in 2026 than previous anticipated
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    26 March 2026 285 KB PDF
    • European govvies made notable losses as various national surveys signalled a jump in consumer price expectations in March.
    • Gilts followed the global trend lower, while comments from BoE Deputy Governor Breeden suggested she could vote for either unchanged policy or an increase in rates in April, but uber-dove Taylor suggested the bar for a hike was high.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    25 March 2026 383 KB PDF
    • While ECB policymakers reinforced that the April and June Governing Council meetings were live for a rate hike, Bunds followed the global trend higher.
    • Gilts made larger gains as UK inflation held steady ahead of the war, with services, food and energy components easing.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    24 March 2026 325 KB PDF
    • While the flash euro area composite PMI fell to a 10-month low as services stagnated, shorter-dated Bunds made notable losses as the surge in wholesale energy prices was evident in the manufacturing input price index.
    • Gilts also closed lower as the flash UK PMIs similarly pointed to substantially higher input prices and BoE Chief Economist Pill noted his readiness to respond to such pressures.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    20 March 2026 456 KB PDF
    • The global bond sell-off continued, with 10Y Bund yields rising above 3% for the first time since 2011, as investors fully priced three ECB rate hikes in 2026.
    • Gilts again underperformed, with 10Y yields rising above 5% for the first time since 2008, as UK public finance data disappointed.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    20 March 2026 376 KB PDF
    • The March FOMC meeting: Committee currently on hold; rate hikes in near future not the “base case” for most officials; current forecasts carry little weight given acute uncertainty stemming from Middle East crisis, but a low probability of 70’s-style stagflation
    • Update on dual-mandate objectives: PCE price index to record firm increase in February, which suggests the need for patience, especially as labor market viewed to be existing in low-hire/low-fire equilibrium
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    19 March 2026 314 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as the ECB left monetary policy on hold but signalled a readiness to raise rates as its updated projection scenarios suggested that inflation could jump above 6% under a severe energy shock.
    • Gilts again significantly underperformed as the BoE’s MPC unanimously voted to leave rates on hold and several members appeared close to supporting a hike as soon as Q2.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    19 March 2026 201 KB PDF
    • New home sales: substantial drop possibly influenced by winter weather; prices ease; inventories tilt higher