London & NY Research

  • JAPAN

    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2025

2024

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    4 April 2025 312 KB PDF
    • Amid significant risk aversion, Bunds rallied hard while German factory orders data suggested that German goods demand remains weak and French IP remained on course for a drop in Q1.
    • Gilts also made further big gains on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    4 April 2025 408 KB PDF
    • Powell’s update: the economy on solid footing; monetary policy well positioned; long-term inflation expectations “anchored”; “uncertainty remains elevated”
    • March employment: data suggest a solid labor market, one not yet scarred by tariff reverberations
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    3 April 2025 441 KB PDF
    • Bunds made substantial gains as investors responded to Trump’s additional 20% ‘reciprocal’ tariff on EU exports to the US and the increased likelihood that it might trigger a further ECB rate cut this month.
    • While a UK survey signalled an uptick in business inflation expectations, Gilts outperformed.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    1 April 2025 371 KB PDF
    • Despite a further decline in euro area unemployment, Bunds made gains as euro area core inflation moderated in March to the lowest since January 2022.
    • While a UK retail price survey signalled a pickup in food inflation, Gilts also followed USTs higher, as the final manufacturing PMIs pointed to greater pessimism amid a slump in orders.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    1 April 2025 243 KB PDF
    • ISM manufacturing: return to contraction amid tariff-related uncertainty; prices jump
    • JOLTS: job openings rate declined February, layoffs and quits rates unchanged below pre-pandemic levels
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    31 March 2025 284 KB PDF
    • While the flash estimate of German inflation in March fell a little further than anticipated, Bunds made losses at the short end as German retail sales data beat expectations and a Bloomberg report suggested that more ECB officials are ready to pause rates in April.  
    • Gilts followed USTs higher as UK mortgage lending and approvals remained firm ahead of April’s increases in stamp duty.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    28 March 2025 441 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as flash estimates of French and Spanish inflation surprised to the downside and the Commission economic sentiment index fell to a three-month low to suggest minimal growth in Q1.
    • Despite an upside surprise to UK retail sales in February, Gilts followed USTs higher.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    28 March 2025 384 KB PDF
    • February inflation: sticky, but tariffs not yet a factor
    • A complication for the Fed: potential indirect effects from tariffs
    • An update on Q1 growth: sub-one-percent GDP?