London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2020

  • European Banks – Credit Update

    European Banks – Credit Update

    14 April 2020 618 KB PDF
    • UBS and Credit Suisse resisted calls from the Swiss regulator to fully freeze dividend payments, highlighting the strength of their balance sheets and business models.
    • Highlighting how some banks have actually benefited from the market volatility in March, UBS announced a 34% Y/Y net profit increase in the first quarter.
    • Secondary spreads tightened significantly, on SNP/Sr HoldCo paper in particular, albeit liquidity remains reportedly reduced. Primary market activity remained subdued.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    10 April 2020 320 KB PDF
    • Consumer inflation: in step with the retreating economy
    • The Fed: aggressive QE; more credit facilities, but slow implementation
    • Coronavirus: bending the curve
  • US FOMC Review

    US FOMC Review

    9 April 2020 113 KB PDF
    • FOMC Minutes: concerned about the coronavirus, but more concerned about financial market dysfunction; an early start to QE
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    9 April 2020 302 KB PDF
    • As the Eurogroup’s latest videoconference got underway, Bunds made gains and periphery bonds outperformed as Lagarde insisted the ECB would not allow any tightening of financial conditions and urged substantive fiscal support in all parts of the euro area.  
    • While February UK GDP data were weak, Gilts made significant gains as the BoE temporarily increased the UK Government’s “overdraft” facility at the central bank, raising talk of monetary financing.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    9 April 2020 261 KB PDF
    • Consumer sentiment: pronounced decline, especially in current conditions
    •  Unemployment claims: modest, almost imperceptible, easing
    •  PPI: lower energy prices, subdued food prices, random volatility in the core component
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    8 April 2020 276 KB PDF
    • Core euro area government bonds largely made modest gains and BTPs made limited losses after the Eurogroup failed to reach agreement on new pandemic crisis support mechanisms and the Bank of France estimated a record drop in French GDP in Q1.  
    • Gilts made gains as Boris Johnson remained hospitalised in intensive care.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    7 April 2020 267 KB PDF
    • With equity markets making further gains, Bunds and other euro area government bonds made losses as the Eurogroup discussed new pandemic crisis support. Late in the day, the ECB announced a relaxation of its collateral rules, including acceptance of Greek bonds in its operations.  
    • Gilts also made losses as Boris Johnson remained hospitalised in intensive care and the number of UK Covid-19 deaths rose to a new daily high.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    6 April 2020 359 KB PDF
    • Data watch: focus on unemployment claims, not payrolls
    • Other indicators: all showing marked retreat
    • Fed: in high gear
    • International trade: favorable recently, but only on the surface