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2026

2025

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  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    5 May 2026 202 KB PDF
    • ISM services: dip in composite led by sizable decline in new orders, though still indicating expansion for the 22nd consecutive month; prices remain elevated
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    1 May 2026 436 KB PDF
    • Updated Fed call: given recent moves in consumer price metrics, along with heightened uncertainty regarding the inflation outlook, we have pushed back projected rate cuts to late 2026 and the first half of 2027
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    30 April 2026 478 KB PDF
    • While ECB President Lagarde hinted at a rate hike as soon as the June meeting, Bunds made gains as the oil price fell, euro area core inflation moderated and Q1 GDP undershot expectations. 
    • Gilts also followed the global trend higher, as the BoE ‘actively’ held interest rates, reflecting hopes of some members of the MPC that hikes might not be required given the tightening of financial conditions over recent weeks.  
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    30 April 2026 273 KB PDF
    • GDP: solid growth in 26-Q1 led by consumer spending and capex; data yet to reflect the full force of spike in energy prices
    • March inflation: surge in headline led by energy prices; core stuck above 3 percent
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    29 April 2026 333 KB PDF
    • While German inflation was slightly softer than expected and the Commission sentiment indices slumped in April, Bunds made losses as consumer and business price expectations rose to multi-year highs.
    • Gilts followed the global trend lower on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • US FOMC Review

    US FOMC Review

    29 April 2026 205 KB PDF
    • FOMC: target range for federal funds rate unchanged at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent amid heightened inflation risks
    • The Committee vote: 8-4 in favor of the monetary policy action; Governor Miran (as expected) in favor of a cut of 25 basis points, while three bank presidents supported the hold but not the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    28 April 2026 299 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed the global trend lower, while ECB surveys flagged a tightening of financial conditions and a moderation in firms’ wage expectations, but a deterioration in the near-term inflation expectations.  
    • While a UK survey suggested that weak demand continues to suppress retailer pricing powers, Gilts made losses amid ongoing political pressures on PM Starmer.  
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    24 April 2026 428 KB PDF
    • Bunds closed slightly higher after the ifo survey signalled the worst German business climate since 2020.
    • As a BoE survey suggested that UK wage and medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, Gilts also made gains despite stronger-than-expected growth in retail sales.