London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2025

2024

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  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    4 April 2025 408 KB PDF
    • Powell’s update: the economy on solid footing; monetary policy well positioned; long-term inflation expectations “anchored”; “uncertainty remains elevated”
    • March employment: data suggest a solid labor market, one not yet scarred by tariff reverberations
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    3 April 2025 441 KB PDF
    • Bunds made substantial gains as investors responded to Trump’s additional 20% ‘reciprocal’ tariff on EU exports to the US and the increased likelihood that it might trigger a further ECB rate cut this month.
    • While a UK survey signalled an uptick in business inflation expectations, Gilts outperformed.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    1 April 2025 371 KB PDF
    • Despite a further decline in euro area unemployment, Bunds made gains as euro area core inflation moderated in March to the lowest since January 2022.
    • While a UK retail price survey signalled a pickup in food inflation, Gilts also followed USTs higher, as the final manufacturing PMIs pointed to greater pessimism amid a slump in orders.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    1 April 2025 243 KB PDF
    • ISM manufacturing: return to contraction amid tariff-related uncertainty; prices jump
    • JOLTS: job openings rate declined February, layoffs and quits rates unchanged below pre-pandemic levels
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    31 March 2025 284 KB PDF
    • While the flash estimate of German inflation in March fell a little further than anticipated, Bunds made losses at the short end as German retail sales data beat expectations and a Bloomberg report suggested that more ECB officials are ready to pause rates in April.  
    • Gilts followed USTs higher as UK mortgage lending and approvals remained firm ahead of April’s increases in stamp duty.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    28 March 2025 441 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as flash estimates of French and Spanish inflation surprised to the downside and the Commission economic sentiment index fell to a three-month low to suggest minimal growth in Q1.
    • Despite an upside surprise to UK retail sales in February, Gilts followed USTs higher.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    28 March 2025 384 KB PDF
    • February inflation: sticky, but tariffs not yet a factor
    • A complication for the Fed: potential indirect effects from tariffs
    • An update on Q1 growth: sub-one-percent GDP?
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    27 March 2025 354 KB PDF
    • While euro area bank lending growth continued to recover, Bunds made gains particularly at the short end as markets took stock of yesterday’s announcement of new US tariffs on the autos sector.
    • While the UK government suggested that it would not take retaliatory action against US auto tariffs, Gilts made losses at the longer end as markets continued to take stock of yesterday’s fiscal policy announcements.