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2020

  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    28 April 2020 315 KB PDF
    • While France announced plans for a gradual exit from lockdown measures, euro area government bonds made gains as an ECB survey suggested a massive increase in loan demand from liquidity-strained firms.
    • Gilts were little changed despite a very gloomy UK retail survey, which highlighted firms’ cash-flow difficulties as well as a sharp drop in sales.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    27 April 2020 279 KB PDF
    • Virus update: mid stages
    • Long-run implications of the coronavirus
    • Previews: GDP and FOMC
  • European Banks - Credit Update

    European Banks - Credit Update

    27 April 2020 615 KB PDF
    • Q120 results published last week showed resilience, but credit profiles will deteriorate in coming quarters.
    • Temporary changes made by regulators to the calculation of loan loss provisions and market risk will reduce the transparency of banks’ data.  
    • Primary market activity remained weak, and the tightening trend on secondary spreads came to a halt, driven by Italian names. 
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    24 April 2020 154 KB PDF
    • Durable goods orders: surprising resilience ex-transportation
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    24 April 2020 392 KB PDF
    • Bunds made significant gains as the ifo business survey made clear that German firms have an extremely downbeat view of the outlook. Supported by ECB policy, periphery bonds outperformed despite the failure of EU leaders to agree detail on the proposed recovery fund.
    • While UK retail sales dropped at a record pace, Gilts made modest losses as consumer confidence remained steady and the government announced increased support for SMEs.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    23 April 2020 150 KB PDF
    • New home sales: virus-related softness, although less than dire
    • Unemployment claims: initial claims ease, but still shockingly high... the number of recipients still climbing
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    23 April 2020 295 KB PDF
    • As EU leaders discussed plans for a Recovery Fund, Bunds made gains as the flash euro area PMIs slumped to extreme record lows. Periphery bonds rallied after the ECB’s announcement late yesterday of a further relaxation of its collateral rules.
    • While the DMO announced a huge £180bn of new issuance between May and July, Gilts made gains as the UK PMIs plunged to new record lows.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    22 April 2020 285 KB PDF
    • Despite a sharp drop in the Commission’s consumer confidence index, Bunds and most other euro area governments made losses. But BTPs stabilised, seemingly thanks to ECB purchases.   
    • Gilts made more moderate losses as UK inflation fell in line with expectations.