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12 January 2024
339 KB
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- Bunds opened higher due to events in the Red Sea and subsequently followed USTs to make further gains, even as French consumer spending data beat expectations.
- Despite a rebound in monthly UK GDP in November, Gilts also made gains as economic output continued to trend lower on a three-month basis.
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12 January 2024
535 KB
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- 2024 U.S. economic outlook: sluggish performance with mild contraction possible
- Inflation: additional progress in 2024, but return to two-percent not yet assured
- Monetary policy: pivot contingent on additional easing in inflation
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11 January 2024
371 KB
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- CPI: brisk increase in core driven by pressure in service inflation
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9 January 2024
310 KB
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- While German industrial output dropped to its lowest level since the first Covid-19 lockdown, Bunds made losses as the euro area unemployment rate fell back to match its record low.
- Gilts also made losses even as a survey suggested that UK retail sales declined back at the end of last year.
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8 January 2024
301 KB
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- Despite a pickup in German exports and a stronger-than-expected euro area sentiment survey, Bunds made gains as German factory orders and euro area retail sales remained weak.
- Gilts also made gains as a survey reported a continued softening in UK labour market conditions.
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5 January 2024
361 KB
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- While euro area core inflation fell further and German retail sales dropped sharply, Bunds made losses as euro area headline inflation in December reversed the prior month’s drop.
- Gilts also made losses despite a weak UK construction sector survey.
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5 January 2024
575 KB
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- December employment: solid payroll print, with caveats; brisk earnings growth; concerns with household data
- ISM services: still indicating growth, but a concerning drop in the employment component
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4 January 2024
343 KB
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- While core inflation maintained its downtrend, Bunds made significant losses as the flash estimates of headline German inflation in December rose sharply due to a temporary energy base effect.
- Gilts also made losses as a UK survey signalled a pickup in wage expectations while the final December PMIs were revised up to signal a modest pickup in GDP in Q4.
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