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Japan's retail sales and IP weaken in December

31 January 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • The weekend saw Italy's Sergio Mattarella re-elected as national President for a second term, allowing Mario Draghi to remain as Prime Minister and in control of the government’s reform agenda.
  • Euro area Q4 GDP figures today will confirm a sharp slowdown in growth at the end of last year, but will also see output return back to its pre-pandemic level.
  • ECB and BoE monetary policy meetings of particular interest this week. UK's Bank Rate expected to be hiked for the second successive meeting to 0.5%.

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French GDP rose above the pre-pandemic level

28 January 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Tokyo inflation eased at the start of the year as base effects from the government’s travel subsidies fell out of the calculation and underlying inflation weakened.
  • French GDP rose a respectable 0.7%Q/Q in Q4 despite ongoing supply bottlenecks and the new wave of coronavirus.

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Fed signals likelihood of March rate lift-off

27 January 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Following improved German business surveys, consumer confidence also improves slightly to suggest stabilisation in economic conditions at the start of the year.
  • US Q4 GDP data to confirm another quarter of above-potential growth at the end of 2021.

 

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Japan's flash PMIs highlight the new pandemic hit to services

24 January 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • All eyes won the FOMC and Powell's press conference for clues on policy outlook.
  • Japan’s flash PMIs predictably signalled a hit to services activity in the New Year due.
  • In the euro area, today’s flash PMIs will also flag the hit to services; Q4 GDP estimates (Friday) from Germany, France and Spain to report a sharp slowdown in growth.

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UK retail sales plunge in December

21 January 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • While headline Japanese inflation rises to a 3-year high, the data miss expectations with no increase in core measures and new pressures limited to food prices.
  • UK retail sales drop much further than expected in December. as Omicron, high inflation, supply shortages and deteriorating confidence bite.

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