Recent Blogs




Euro area HICP expected to have eased in November

Emily Nicol
  • Japanese retail sales and industrial production data this week set to provide mixed message about the economic performance at start of Q4; MoF’s capex survey results to feed into updated Q3 GDP estimate
  • European Commission’s sentiment survey set to report some stabilisation this month 
  • UK retail survey likely to report subdued sales growth as cost of living crisis offsets Black Friday discounting
  • US labour market report at the end of the week expected to report a slowdown in the jobs market

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Japanese Q3 GDP expected to slow sharply

Emily Nicol
  • Euro area IP data likely to report a broadly sideways trend in Q3 despite modest growth in September
  • UK labour market figures expected to report a very tight jobs market, despite an anticipated decline in employment; CPI inflation set to have jumped in October; Friday’s retail sales data likely to maintain downwards trend
  • UK’s updated fiscal strategy likely to signal a return to fiscal austerity and higher taxes

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Updated UK fiscal strategy due this week

Emily Nicol
  • In Japan, Q3 GDP and CPI inflation figures the data highlights
  • Euro area IP expected to report a broadly sideways trend in Q3 
  • UK labour market figures expected to report a very tight jobs market; CPI inflation and retail sales data also feature this week
  • US PPI numbers will be watched for further moderation in price pressures, while retail sales figures are expected to rebound amid a strong increase in autos sales

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German IP beat expectations in September

Emily Nicol
  • Chinese exports unexpectedly fell in October
  • Japanese real wage growth expected to remain firmly negative in September; economy watchers and Reuters Tankan surveys to update on conditions at start of Q4
  • Euro area retail sales data likely to report only modest increase in September; final German CPI inflation figures set to confirm jump in October
  • UK GDP expected to have contracted in Q3 by around ½%Q/Q
  • US CPI inflation likely to have picked up on a monthly basis in October; core measure expected to remain firmly above Fed’s comfort zone

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Japanese services PMI points to renewed strength

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • German factory orders fall sharply at end of Q3 on weaker foreign demand to point to a very weak outlook for production
  • Japanese services PMIs pointed to renewed strength in activity at the start of Q4, as the lifting of international travel restrictions and the launch of the government’s domestic travel support programme boosted demand

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