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UK labour supply and demand imbalances continue

Emily Nicol
  • Japanese consumers the most downbeat since the start of 2021 amid higher price expectations; economy watchers were given a boost by the lifting of Covid-related restrictions with the headline sentiment index up to a three-month high
  • UK report on jobs continued to flag ongoing labour supply and demand imbalances which drove permanent starting salaries to a survey high.

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Japanese consumption falls

Emily Nicol
  • Japanese consumption declined for third consecutive month; BoJ consumer opinion survey suggests households’ financial situations will continue to deteriorate.
  • German industrial production ekes out modest increase in February.
  • ECB account from the March Governing Council meeting to offer insight into debate on the expected economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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German factory orders weaker than expected

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Chinese Caixin services PMI plummets to its lowest level since February 2020 to signal sharp contraction amid rising Covid cases and tighter restrictions.
  • Euro area PPI inflation set to rise to new series high; construction PMIs likely to suggest ongoing expansion in sector at end-Q1.
  • Fed’s minutes of its March policy meeting should provide further plenty of information on the FOMC’s plans to reduce its balance sheet.

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German goods trade data surprised on the upside

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • German goods trade data surprised on the upside as exports jumped on strong demand from other euro area member states, while shipments to Russia fell sharply as sanctions were tightened towards the end of the month.
  • The FOMC minutes from 16-March meeting and the ECB account from the 10-March meeting will be watched closely for further insights into the near-term path for policy.

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BoJ Tankan reports deterioration in conditions

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • BoJ Tankan reports deterioration in Japanese business conditions amid significantly higher cost pressures.
  • We expect flash data today to show that euro area inflation leapt to about 7%Y/Y in March, driven higher principally by energy and food prices.
  • The US labour market report is likely to confirm another month of solid growth in nonfarm payrolls.

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