28 October 2022
Emily Nicol
,
Chris Scicluna
- Tokyo core inflation surges to highest rate since 1989 due to higher prices of processed food and services
- Initial estimates of inflation in October in the euro area member states are decidedly mixed, with big upside surprises in France and Germany’s largest state
- Contrary to expectations of a contraction, German GDP grew 0.3%Q/Q in Q3; French and Spanish GDP slowed to 0.2%Q/Q in Q3
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27 October 2022
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- German consumer confidence improves very slightly, although remains close to historically weak levels
- CBI distributive trades survey likely to signal ongoing weakness in UK retail sales at the start of Q4
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25 October 2022
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- BoJ’s trimmed mean CPI hits 2% for the first time
- German ifo business survey likely to signal increased probability of recession; ECB bank lending survey to flag tightening of credit standards
- Politics will remain the focus in the UK, as the markets’ preferred candidate Rishi Sunak will be confirmed as Prime Minister; data-wise, the CBI industrial trends survey is likely to highlight the ongoing challenges facing UK manufacturers
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24 October 2022
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- Major government bonds continue to make gains on reports that the Fed is considering how best to manage a slowing in the pace of its rate hikes; Gilts outperform after yesterday’s confirmation that former Prime Minister Boris Johnson will not run in the Conservative leadership election, with former Chancellor Rishi Sunak looking well set to be confirmed the UK’s third PM of 2022
- Flash PMIs improved in Japan, but set to signal a steeper pace of contraction in the euro area and UK
- ECB likely to raise rates on Thursday by another 75bps, but BoJ on Friday set to leave its ultra-accommodative policy stance unchanged
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21 October 2022
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- UK retail sales fell almost 10% below the Spring 2021 peak, while UK consumer willingness to spend deteriorated further at the start of Q4
- Japanese core CPI inflation maintains a steady upwards trend in September
- European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator likely to report a further deterioration in euro area household sentiment at the start of Q4
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