09 September 2024
Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
- The ECB’s policy announcement seems bound to deliver a further cut of 25bps in the Deposit Rate to 3.5%, while President Lagarde might also offer a more dovish take in her press conference in line with a more subdued outlook for economic activity
- In the US, all eyes will be on the August CPI report, which will likely see the annual rate of headline inflation ease to 2.6%Y/Y the lowest since March, with core inflation unchanged at 3.2%Y/Y, the joint-lowest since spring 2021
- A busy week for UK data will bring an update on labour market conditions and monthly GDP figures
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02 September 2024
Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
- Friday's US payrolls report will likely show a moderate pickup in non-farm payrolls following the slowdown in July with the unemployment rate possible declining too
- Figures for euro area retail sales, German factory orders and industrial production will provide an update on economic activity at the start of Q3
- Japanese wage growth is expected to have slowed slightly due to bonus payments but remain above the average of recent years
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24 June 2024
Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
- Key inflation figures include the US core PCE deflator for May, flash euro area inflation and Tokyo CPI for June
- The European Commission's economic sentiment survey will provide a stock-check on Friday's disappointing flash PMIs
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03 June 2024
Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
- The ECB will cut rates on Thursday for the first time this cycle, but President Lagarde will downplay the chances of a further cut in July and will insist that future decisions will remain data dependent.
- US payrolls numbers are expected to have grown close to the more moderate pace of 175k seen in April having averaged 269k in Q1
- Figures for Japanese wages, euro area retail sales and German factory orders are also due
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13 May 2024
Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
- All eyes will be on the April US CPI inflation report on Wednesday, while PPI data on Tuesday will also be closely watched.
- UK's wage growth will be watched closely for signs of easing domestically-driven inflationary pressures.
- In China, April figures for industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment will provide insight into recovery momentum at the start of Q2.
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