30 March 2023
Emily Nicol
,
Chris Scicluna
- The fall in Spanish inflation was also striking, with the EU-harmonised HICP rate almost halving to 3.1%Y/Y
- The European Commission’s business and consumer survey results will provide an update on price expectations as well as economic conditions at the end of Q1
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27 March 2023
Emily Nicol
- Tokyo inflation figure for March on Friday likely to show a further modest easing in the headline CPI rate
- Flash euro area inflation on Friday expected to report a notable drop in the headline rate due to base effects
- UK bank lending figures midweek likely to report a further weakening trend in mortgage lending and approvals
- US personal income and consumption figures at the end of the week expected to report only a modest increase in wages
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23 March 2023
Emily Nicol
,
Chris Scicluna
- Reuters Tankan survey signals persisting divergence in conditions for Japanese manufacturers and non-manufacturers
- Commission’s consumer confidence index likely to report only a modest improvement in sentiment amid ongoing uncertainties
- US weekly jobless claims figures due alongside February new home sales figures and the Kansas Fed national activity indices
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22 March 2023
Emily Nicol
,
Chris Scicluna
- UK inflation figures strengthened the case for a further rate hike, with headline inflation unexpectedly rising on the back of record monthly price increases in food, core goods and, most importantly, services
- With financial markets having stabilised to some extent, the FOMC is now widely expected to raise rates by a further 25bps taking the FFR target range to 4.75-5.00%
- Bundesbank President Nagel this morning suggested in an interview that the Governing Council must be ‘more stubborn’ in its fight against inflation
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20 March 2023
Emily Nicol
,
Chris Scicluna
- Given concerns about the inflation outlook, our colleagues at Daiwa America still forecast further tightening of 25bps taking the FFR range to 4.75-5.00%
- We expect the BoE’s monetary policy decision on Thursday also to deliver an increase of 25bps taking Bank Rate to 4.25%
- ECB policymakers’ comments this week will be scrutinised for further insights into the near-term policy path
- Japanese February CPI inflation data (Friday) expected to report a notable easing in the headline rate on the back of government household energy support measures
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