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BoJ, Fed & BoE to leave rates unchanged

17 March 2025

Emily Nicol

* The BoJ, Fed and BoE will remain patient in the current uncertain economic environment and leave policy rates unchanged. The Fed's dot plots will be closely watched, while Japanese CPI and UK labour market figures, as well as Japanese and euro area trade data are also due. 

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Inflation & wage data in focus

10 March 2025

Emily Nicol
  • Ahead of the Fed's policy decision on 19 March, US price data will be in focus this week, with the headline and core CPI rates expected to moderate slightly, with the latter matching the lowest since March 2021. 
  • The ECB's wage trackers will likely point to a steady moderation in pay growth, while Japan's Rengo union confederation will likely announce another strong increase in iits first estimate of this year's spring wage settlement. 

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US CPI report & Fed Chair Powell's testimony in focus

10 February 2025

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony as well as the January CPI and PPI inflation data.
  • In the UK, after the BoE last week halved its economic growth forecast for this year GDP figures for Q4 and December will further highlight the flat-lining of economic activity since the spring. The week also brings speeches from MPC members including Governor Bailey and external member Mann, with the latter notably having pivoted from her previous status of uber-hawk to voting last week for a cut of 50bps

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BoE to cut rates despite tariff uncertainty

03 February 2025

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • The ongoing news-flow on US trade policy will take centrestage, while the BoE is expected to cut Bank Rate by 25bps and the US jobs report will be in focus. 

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Fed to leave policy unchanged, but ECB to cut rates by a further 25bps

27 January 2025

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • The coming week brings monetary policy announcements from the US (Wednesday) and euro area (Thursday), as well as the first estimates of Q4 GDP from the US and euro area (Thursday) and updates on inflation from the US, Germany, France and Tokyo (Friday).
  • The Fed will leave its target range for the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. In his press conference, Chair Powell will again likely suggest that the risks to the US outlook are broadly in balance, but also that the FOMC remains open to renewed cuts this year. 
  • The ECB will ease policy by a further 25bps, taking the deposit rate to 2.75%. While it will insist that policy remains data-dependent and is not on a pre-set path, the Governing Council will signal the likelihood of further easing to a neutral stance over the near term. 

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