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ECB to hike interest rates

11 September 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • We expect the ECB to hike rates by a further 25bps and insist that rates are likely to remain restrictive for as long as necessary to get inflation back to target.
  • The yen appreciated and JGB yields rose across the curve following Saturday’s Yomiuri interview with BoJ Governor Ueda, where he flagged the possibility of ending the negative interest rate policy, and perhaps even by year end.
  • In the UK, all eyes will be on the labour market report, while in the US, the main focus will be August’s CPI report. 

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Policy rates approaching the peak for the cycle

04 September 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • With policy rates approaching the peak for the cycle, central bank announcements and commentary should be watched this week. 
  • Data-wise, in Japan, wage growth is expected to remain above 2%.
  • In the euro area, producer prices, final services PMIs and the ECB’s consumer expectations surveys will provide further insights on the inflation outlook.
  • UK surveys are expected to point to a further deterioration in economic momentum.

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Jackson Hole the main focus this week

21 August 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • Jackson Hole is the main focus this week. With rates likely close to (or already at) their peak for this cycle, Fed Chair Powell, and ECB President Lagarde, have the opportunity on Friday to give their thoughts about both the short- and medium-term monetary policy outlook. 
  • Data-wise, the flash August PMIs from Europe and Japan will be of most interest for timely signals on both economic activity and price developments in the middle of Q3. 

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Key UK labour market data and inflation figures due

14 August 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • The euro area economic dataflow will bring the ZEW survey, euro area June IP as well as employment and updated GDP for Q2, June goods trade and final euro area July inflation data.
  • In Japan, tomorrow will bring the first estimate of Q2 GDP,the Reuters Tankan survey and the July national CPI report.
  • In the US, tomorrow brings July’s retail sales report, while Wednesday is the other main day bringing Fed minutes and July IP and housing starts.

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German IP in June misses expectations

07 August 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • Euro area sentix investor sentiment index beats expectations.
  • The BoJ’s real consumption activity index falls in June to be consistent with a soft end to Q2 for consumer spending. 
  • UK Q2 GDP are due on Friday and, once again, are likely to report minimal growth if any at all.

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