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Japanese PMIs flag diverging conditions

21 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • The flash euro area PMIs are likely to point to further improvement in conditions led by the services sector in February; the region’s new car registrations continued to recover
  • The UK’s fiscal figures beat expectations again despite another monthly record for debt interest; today’s flash UK PMIs are likely to remain consistent with contraction
  • US flash PMIs and Philly Fed non-manufacturing index likely to remain weak

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All eyes in Japan will be on BoJ Governor nominee hearing

20 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Euro area flash consumer confidence index due, while flash PMIs are expected to report a further improvement in conditions in February
  • Sentiment indicators also to dominate the UK this week, with flash PMIs, CBI retail and GfK consumer surveys likely to point to a weak economic outlook in Q1
  • Fed minutes to be watched on Wednesday

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Japanese wages jump in nominal terms

07 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • German IP disappoints to remain firmly in reverse over Q4 as a whole as efforts to cut energy use were maintained; Spanish IP also subtracts from GDP growth in Q4
  • BRC survey suggests UK retailers had a challenging start to the year, with sales slowing further

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German factory orders rebounded

06 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese wage data a key focus this week, with headline wage growth expected to have risen to the strongest rate since mid-2018
  • UK GDP data on Friday is likely to report a moderate decline in activity in December, to leave the economy moving broadly sideways in Q4
  • US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations measures in focus

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All eyes turn to the ECB and BoE

02 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • The Fed predictably slowed its pace of tightening to 25bps and Jay Powell failed to buck market pricing of a pivot later this year
  • The ECB looks bound to raise rates by a further 50bps to take the deposit rate to 2.50%, and seems likely to maintain hawkish forward guidance
  • The BoE’s rate decision looks more finely balanced than the ECB’s, as the MPC weighs the tight labour market and strong wage growth against a contracting economy and an acknowledgement that inflation will fall rapidly this year

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