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UK GDP beat expectations in January on special factors

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Kuroda left YCC unchanged at his final policy-setting meeting and maintained that it was still too early to discuss the BoJ’s exit strategy
  • UK GDP beat expectations in January on special factors
  • US payroll report to be closely watched – expect a moderation from the surge in January

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Japan’s Q4 GDP growth revised away

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Chinese inflation remained subdued in February
  • RICS survey suggests UK home prices continue to fall
  • Bank of France survey signalled a further improvement in services and industrial activity last month
  • US Challenger job cuts and weekly jobless claims numbers due

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German IP surprised on the upside, while retail sales extended downwards trend

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s economy watchers survey saw the headline current conditions index rise for the first month in four
  • UK labour survey suggested a further moderation in permanent jobs growth in February, but still strong wage pressures
  • US trade numbers for January and ADP employment report due; Fed Chair Powell to repeat his hawkish monetary policy testimony before the House financial services committee

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Japanese wage numbers disappointed

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • RBA hikes by another 25bps as expected, taking its Cash Rate to 3.6% and stated that it “expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be needed”
  • German factory orders rise for 2nd month in January on aerospace demand
  • Despite the headline figures signalling a rebound in spending in January, the BRC survey suggests that the downtrend in UK real sales on non-essentials continues
  • All eyes today on the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress

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The main event will be Friday's BoJ meeting

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • Kuroda is likely to leave policy unchanged at his final meeting to try to maintain the squeeze on investors betting against YCC
  • Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress will be closely watched for any hints on the likely policy path over coming FOMC
  • ECB consumer expectations survey published this week
  • The main UK release will be January GDP data, which are expected to report only very modest growth

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