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Will BoE hike Bank Rate by 50bps?

22 June 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • After a big upside surprises in the latest UK wage and inflation data, there is now a significant probability that the BoE will hike Bank Rate by 50bps to 5.00%
  • The flash estimate of euro area consumer confidence due this afternoon is expected to post a modest improvement
  • Fed Chair Powell to repeat his hawkish message before the Senate Committee, while existing home sales expected to remain very weak

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UK inflation surprises significantly to the upside

21 June 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • Reuters Tankan survey signalled a pickup in Japan’s recovery momentum, with auto manufacturers benefitting from an easing in supply constraints
  • Fed Chair Powell expected to deliver a relatively hawkish message before Congress, reiterating that further interest rate hikes are likely this year

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BoE takes the spotlight this week

19 June 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • BoE expected to hike Bank Rate by a further 25bps, but in the event of a sizeable upside surprise to May’s CPI report we wouldn’t rule out a larger 50bps increase
  • Flash euro area PMIs likely to point a further moderation in economic recovery momentum
  • Japanese CPI figures expected to report a slight easing in headline inflation, but a further increase in underlying price pressures
  • Fed Chair Powell’s monetary policy testimony to Congress likely to reiterate that the current inflation outlook justifies further policy tightening this cycle

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BoJ resists temptation, leaving policy unchanged

16 June 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Detailed inflation data and labour cost and slack figures in focus in the euro area
  • BoE household inflation attitudes survey to be closely watched ahead of next week’s policy decision
  • Michigan consumer survey expected to suggest that US consumer sentiment remains soft as price expectations remain elevated

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ECB to hike interest rates

15 June 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • PBoC cuts 1-year loan rate as Chinese recovery momentum ebbs
  • Retail sales and IP reports due on a busy day for US data after the Fed’s hawkish pause
  • Net trade on track to provide a boost to Japan’s GDP growth

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