Recent Blogs

Subscribe to RSS feed

FILTER POSTS

Category

Archive

Euro banks' equity valuations - credit still to catch up?

04 February 2016

Jakub Lichwa
, 
Grant Lewis
  • Equity valuation of European banks hit its lowest point since 2 August 2012.
  • This drop in valuations reflects what appear to be growing fears around the health of the banking sector in Europe.
  • But while equity valuations have tanked, the move in CDS has been much less pronounced, and is still a far cry from the 280 level hit on 2 August 2012.

Categories : 

Market-testing the euro area recovery

03 February 2016

Chris Scicluna
  • While the euro area economic recovery continues for now, heightened global financial market turmoil risks denting business and consumer confidence and hitting GDP growth.
  • Given the weakened inflation outlook the ECB will ease policy again in March. But whatever is announced seems unlikely to be transformative.

Categories : 

Greece's threat of euro exit has cheated it of a recovery

04 June 2015

Grant Lewis
  • As the money runs out in Athens, signs are that the Greek Government is inching towards a last-minute deal.
  • But the damage done to the Greek economy during the negotiations has been immense.

Categories : 

Grexit: Avoiding the slippery slope

30 April 2015

Robert Kuenzel
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • The Greek government’s reshuffle of its bailout negotiating team has raised hopes that a deal will be reached to avoid default and euro exit. And that remains our baseline scenario.
  • But not least due to difficult domestic politics and the amateurish nature of the government, the risk of a disorderly end to Greece’s membership of the euro remains significant.

Categories : 

UK election: Political risks rising

24 April 2015

Grant Lewis
  • The fragmentation of British politics over recent years makes the outcome of the 7 May election more uncertain than for any since before the war.
  • No single party looks set to win sufficient seats to form a majority government, so some form of multi-party arrangement will be required. And negotiations are likely to take longer than the five days they took in 2010.
  • On balance, a Labour-led administration supported by the SNP and Lib Dems looks to be the most likely outcome. That may result in some near-term financial market volatility, while the post-election political landscape looks likely to be one of heightened political risks whichever of the two main parties leads the new government.

Categories :