Recent Blogs




The euro area in 2017 - Business as usual?

  • The ECB’s latest policy changes have had the intended impact on financial markets, steepening the yield curve and weakening the euro, which should support ongoing steady economic recovery in the euro area.
  • While political risks are clear, we currently expect the euro area to avoid a major Brexit-like shock in 2017.  

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Will Renzi's referendum complicate Draghi's decision?

  • The market mood on Monday will be set by the outcome of Renzi’s referendum on constitutional reform, which risks a period of heightened political uncertainty in Italy.
  • Regardless of how those events pan out, on Thursday the ECB will announce an extension of QE and relax the rules of the purchase programme too.

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The euro area after Trump

  • While investors are pricing-in stronger US economic growth and inflation, the impact of Trump’s election victory on the euro area economy might be at best minimal and, quite possibly, harmful.

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OBR lays bare Brexit costs

Today’s Autumn Statement laid bare the expected hit to the public finances from Brexit. But despite expecting to borrow an additional £122bn over the next five years, fiscal policy will continue to weigh on growth.

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Chancellor constrained by Brexit hit to public finances

In the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum, with concerns about the near-term economic outlook at their height, the prospect of a sizeable fiscal stimulus package being included in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement looked odds on.

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