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UK inflation rises to 30-year high

23 March 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • UK Chancellor Sunak expected to offer some modest fiscal giveaways to lessen the impact of rising energy bills.
  • BoJ estimates suggest that Japan’s price pressures are broadening.
  • Euro area consumer confidence set to fall to its lowest level in more than a year; US new home sales figures to be boosted by prospect of higher mortgage rates.

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Euro area surveys to illustrate hit to confidence after Ukraine invasion

21 March 2022

Emily Nicol
  • German PPI data confirmed the headline rate at a new series high.
  • The flash euro area PMIs will provide an update on business conditions in March and shed some light on the initial impact of the Ukraine war on sentiment.
  • UK inflation set to rise significantly higher in February; UK retail sales are also likely to have risen further that month even as consumer confidence fell further.
  • Plenty of FOMC members in action this week.

 

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Fed raises target range for the FFR

17 March 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Despite marked deterioration in the near-term UK inflation outlook and support among several members last month for a larger hike, on balance the BoE’s MPC likely to raise Bank Rate by 25bps.
  • Data-wise, Japanese machine orders fall back in January, but still point to modest capex growth for now; euro area car sales remain in reverse as supply constraints persist.

 

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Japan's trade deficit widest level since Covid shock

16 March 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Today's FOMC announcements seem bound to bring the first Fed rate hike since 2018, with the target range highly likely to be increased by 25bps to 0.25-0.50%.
  • Japanese manufacturers were a touch more upbeat about current conditions as supply constraints faced by autos firms eased slightly, but services were net pessimists.

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UK labour market tightened further

15 March 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • China’s industrial production, fixed investment and retail sales figures pointed to a much firmer first two months of the year for economic activity; so, the PBoC left its medium-term lending facility rate unchanged today at 2.85%.
  • In the euro area, today’s German ZEW investor survey seems bound to record a marked deterioration in sentiment since the Russian invasion as concerns about prices of energy, commodities and supply-chain disruption mounted.

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