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CPI suggests RBA will keep powder dry

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • Ahead of this evening’s Fed announcements, Australia’s latest CPI data saw investors add to bets that the RBA will leave rates unchanged next week. Consumer surveys from Japan, Germany and France gave somewhat mixed results. Many Asian markets took their cue from yesterday’s moves in the US, but Hong Kong reopened to play catch-up with the coronavirus.   

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Risk appetite continues to wane

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • At the start of a week that will bring policy announcements from the Fed and BoE, risk aversion was the dominant theme as coronavirus concerns intensified.

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Focus on flash PMIs

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • January’s flash PMI will be the data focus of the major economies. Japan’s surveys showed a notable recovery at the start of the year. But the euro area’s PMI is expected to signal ongoing subdued GDP growth. And the UK PMIs might well prove pivotal for next week’s BoE policy meeting.

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Japanese trade and Aussie employment improve

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s latest trade report signalled a better performance for exports at the end of last year, as well as a recovery in imports on the back of improved domestic demand. Australia’s labour market report surprised on the upside too, prompting a significant drop in the market-implied expectation of a RBA rate cut next month.

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Confidence slipped back at the start of the year

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • While there was some revival of sentiment in equity markets overnight, surveys suggested that Aussie households were unsurprisingly more downbeat about conditions at the start of the year, while French businesses also signalled a slight softening of sentiment.

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