Recent Blogs




Japan survey confirmed solid investment growth

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • German retail sales slumped in October
  • Euro area unemployment rate expected to have moved sideways at a series low
  • UK house prices fell in November by the most since the start of the pandemic 
  • After Powell hinted yesterday evening that a smaller rate hike was on the cards this month, today will bring personal income and spending figures from the US

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Decline in Japanese IP was steeper than expected

Emily Nicol
  • Chinese PMIs disappoint in November, with a marked deterioration in manufacturing and non-manufacturing conditions
  • While French inflation moved sideways, a sharp drop in Dutch inflation along with declines in Germany and Spain will see flash euro area inflation estimate fall back
  • UK shop price inflation jumps to a new series high 
  • All eyes on Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech for hints on near-term policy


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Japanese retail sales fall short of expectations

Emily Nicol
  • Early estimates from the Länder suggests that German inflation eased by around ½ppt in November
  • European Commission’s surveys likely to signal a stabilisation of sentiment in November
  • BoE bank lending figures to show subdued consumer credit growth and drop in mortgage approvals
  • US consumer confidence set to weaken as house prices continue to fall

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Euro area HICP expected to have eased in November

Emily Nicol
  • Japanese retail sales and industrial production data this week set to provide mixed message about the economic performance at start of Q4; MoF’s capex survey results to feed into updated Q3 GDP estimate
  • European Commission’s sentiment survey set to report some stabilisation this month 
  • UK retail survey likely to report subdued sales growth as cost of living crisis offsets Black Friday discounting
  • US labour market report at the end of the week expected to report a slowdown in the jobs market

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Japanese Q3 GDP expected to slow sharply

Emily Nicol
  • Euro area IP data likely to report a broadly sideways trend in Q3 despite modest growth in September
  • UK labour market figures expected to report a very tight jobs market, despite an anticipated decline in employment; CPI inflation set to have jumped in October; Friday’s retail sales data likely to maintain downwards trend
  • UK’s updated fiscal strategy likely to signal a return to fiscal austerity and higher taxes

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