Recent Blogs




Japanese retail sales fall short of expectations

Emily Nicol
  • Early estimates from the Länder suggests that German inflation eased by around ½ppt in November
  • European Commission’s surveys likely to signal a stabilisation of sentiment in November
  • BoE bank lending figures to show subdued consumer credit growth and drop in mortgage approvals
  • US consumer confidence set to weaken as house prices continue to fall

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Euro area HICP expected to have eased in November

Emily Nicol
  • Japanese retail sales and industrial production data this week set to provide mixed message about the economic performance at start of Q4; MoF’s capex survey results to feed into updated Q3 GDP estimate
  • European Commission’s sentiment survey set to report some stabilisation this month 
  • UK retail survey likely to report subdued sales growth as cost of living crisis offsets Black Friday discounting
  • US labour market report at the end of the week expected to report a slowdown in the jobs market

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Japanese Q3 GDP expected to slow sharply

Emily Nicol
  • Euro area IP data likely to report a broadly sideways trend in Q3 despite modest growth in September
  • UK labour market figures expected to report a very tight jobs market, despite an anticipated decline in employment; CPI inflation set to have jumped in October; Friday’s retail sales data likely to maintain downwards trend
  • UK’s updated fiscal strategy likely to signal a return to fiscal austerity and higher taxes

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Updated UK fiscal strategy due this week

Emily Nicol
  • In Japan, Q3 GDP and CPI inflation figures the data highlights
  • Euro area IP expected to report a broadly sideways trend in Q3 
  • UK labour market figures expected to report a very tight jobs market; CPI inflation and retail sales data also feature this week
  • US PPI numbers will be watched for further moderation in price pressures, while retail sales figures are expected to rebound amid a strong increase in autos sales

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German IP beat expectations in September

Emily Nicol
  • Chinese exports unexpectedly fell in October
  • Japanese real wage growth expected to remain firmly negative in September; economy watchers and Reuters Tankan surveys to update on conditions at start of Q4
  • Euro area retail sales data likely to report only modest increase in September; final German CPI inflation figures set to confirm jump in October
  • UK GDP expected to have contracted in Q3 by around ½%Q/Q
  • US CPI inflation likely to have picked up on a monthly basis in October; core measure expected to remain firmly above Fed’s comfort zone

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