London & NY Research

  • JAPAN

    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2025

2024

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    17 September 2025 333 KB PDF
    • Despite a modest downwards revision to euro area headline inflation, Bunds were little changed as core inflation continued to flatline above target.
    • Gilts were also little changed as UK inflation moved sideways at almost double the 2% target but a drop in core inflation left the door open to a November rate cut.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    16 September 2025 299 KB PDF
    • Bunds were little changed while data confirmed that euro area IP returned to growth in July and a survey reported continued investor optimism in the German economic outlook.
    • Gilts made losses despite a continued moderation in UK private sector pay growth and a slight drop in employee payrolls.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    16 September 2025 258 KB PDF
    • Retail sales: better than expected in August; higher prices tied to tariffs had an impact, but real sales appear to have increased as well; risks remain elevated entering Q4
    • Industrial production: increases in manufacturing and mining offset decline in utilities, though trend remains subdued
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    15 September 2025 394 KB PDF
    • With limited market reaction to Friday’s French sovereign credit rating downgrade, longer-dated Bunds made modest gains as data suggested that euro area goods exports stabilised in July but remained well below the Q2 average.
    • Gilts followed the global trend higher on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    12 September 2025 205 KB PDF
    • CPI: sticky inflation reading unlikely to derail easing in monetary policy, although a reduction of 25 basis points more likely than 50 at next week’s FOMC meeting
    • Core CPI: goods prices advance, in part reflecting tariff-related pressures, with services also recording a firm increase
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    12 September 2025 414 KB PDF
    • While some ECB Governing Council members left open the door to further rate cuts, Bunds made losses across the curve.
    • Gilts also followed the global trend lower despite a loss of GDP growth momentum in July.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    12 September 2025 385 KB PDF
    • FOMC: on track to ease monetary policy next week, with a cut of 25 basis points leaving the target range of the federal funds rate at 4 to 4-1/4 percent the most likely outcome
    • The labour market: deterioration since the FOMC met in July paints a vastly different picture on underlying conditions
    • Inflation: above target but expected to ease as tariff-related price increases abate; longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored
    • The Summary of Economic Projections: outside of the anticipated path of policy, modest changes expected for other key variables
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    11 September 2025 279 KB PDF
    • Apart from at the super-long end, Bunds made losses as the ECB predictably left its policy and guidance unchanged but gave a stronger impression that rates have now reached their terminal levels for this cycle.
    • Gilts made gains as a survey flagged a weakening in conditions in the UK housing market, likely in part due to ongoing fiscal policy uncertainty.