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28 March 2024
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- Despite a downside surprise to German retail sales and subdued euro area bank lending, shorter-dated Bunds made modest losses as German negotiated wage growth accelerated sharply.
- Shorter-dated Gilts also made modest losses even as updated UK national accounts confirmed a technical recession in H223.
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27 March 2024
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- While the Commission survey signalled a return to very modest GDP growth in Q1, Bunds made gains as the survey’s price expectations indices fell and ECB Governing Council member Cipollone suggested there should be scope to cut interest rates “swiftly”.
- Gilts also made gains on a quiet day for top-tier UK data.
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26 March 2024
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- Durable goods orders: sideways trend in orders ex-transportation; shipments data suggests drag from equipment spending on GDP growth in Q1
- Consumer confidence: little changed from downward-revised reading
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22 March 2024
317 KB
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- While the German ifo survey flagged an improved business climate at end-Q1, Bunds made gains as Bundesbank President Nagel suggested that rates could possibly be cut in June.
- Gilts also made gains as UK retail sales were unchanged in February, and the GfK survey suggested a decline in purchase intentions in March.
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22 March 2024
545 KB
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- Forecast update: avoiding recession, at least for now
- Monetary policy: sticky inflation prevents more forceful near-term cuts, while the outlook for rates remains highly uncertain
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21 March 2024
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- Bunds made gains as the flash euro area PMIs signalled further economic stabilisation in March but ongoing contraction in the German economy.
- While the BoE kept rates unchanged and the flash UK PMIs signalled ongoing recovery momentum, Gilts made gains as no MPC member voted for a rate hike for the first time since September 2021.
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20 March 2024
351 KB
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- Longer-dated Bunds made modest gains even as ECB President Lagarde insisted that the Governing Council would not pre-commit to any particular future path in rates and euro area consumer confidence rose to its highest level in more than two years.
- Gilts made larger gains as UK inflation fell a touch further than the BoE and market consensus expected.
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20 March 2024
380 KB
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- FOMC: target range for federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent; cuts contingent on inflation developments
- SEP: economic growth in 2024-26 adjusted higher from prior forecast; faster core inflation expected in 2024
- Dot plot: median dot remained at 4.625 percent in 2024; shallower path of cuts anticipated in 2025 and 2026
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