London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    19 April 2024 359 KB PDF
    • Bunds made modest losses while today’s German figures showed a slight moderation in producer price deflation.
    • Following a lacklustre UK retail sales report for March, Gilts made gains as BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden judged that risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the downside and expressed greater confidence that inflation persistence should ease.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    17 April 2024 304 KB PDF
    • Bunds largely made modest gains as the detailed euro area inflation data for March suggested that the timing of Easter contributed to the stickiness of services pressures that month.   
    • Longer-dated Gilts also made gains even as UK inflation in March slightly exceeded the BoE’s projection.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    16 April 2024 323 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as the ZEW investor survey reinforced expectations that the bottom in Germany’s downturn has been reached, while the euro area trade surplus narrowed on stronger imports.
    • Despite a rise in the UK’s unemployment rate to a six-month high, Gilts made losses as wage momentum picked up and private sector regular pay growth remained above the BoE’s forecast.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    15 April 2024 257 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs lower, while euro area industrial production returned to growth in February, but failed to reverse the decline at the start of the year, suggesting that manufacturing remained a drag on GDP growth in Q1 for a fourth successive quarter.
    • Gilts also made losses on a quiet day for UK economic data.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    12 April 2024 360 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs higher on increased geopolitical risks from the Middle East while detailed German inflation data for March suggested that the persistence in services was in large part related to the timing of Easter.
    • Despite a second successive month of positive UK GDP growth, Gilts also rallied while former Fed Chair Bernanke flagged deficiencies in the BoE’s production and use of its macroeconomic projections.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    12 April 2024 570 KB PDF
    • Revised fed funds call: two cuts in 2024 followed by quarterly reductions in 2025 
    • The latest inflation data require vigilance
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    11 April 2024 276 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed the global trend lower even as the ECB signalled that the June policy meeting is live for a first rate cut, albeit with the decision inevitably still data dependent.
    • Gilts also made losses as surveys suggested further stabilisation in the UK’s housing market, while household demand for loans increased in the first quarter of the year.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    10 April 2024 385 KB PDF
    • CPI: jump in energy & pressure in core services
    • The March CPI suggests the FOMC on hold until at least June